Collaborative Research: Arctic Predictability

合作研究：北极的可预测性

• 批准号: 1023090
• 负责人: William Chapman
• 金额: $ 23.15万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-09-15 至 2013-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1023090&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Arctic; Predictability

The proposed project will respond to one of the driving questions of the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH): "To what extent is the Arctic system predictable?" The project will quantify near-term (seasonal to decadal) predictability by drawing upon the observational records of surface air temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure and sea ice coverage. The near-term predictions will be placed into a framework of probabilities, based on the recent record of variability, that the upcoming period (1, 2, 5, 10? years) will see various increments of change of temperature, precipitation, pressure and sea ice. Longer-term predictability will be quantified in terms of decadal likelihoods of change based on output from a suite of global climate models, with the likelihoods integrated across models and forcing scenarios. Potential predictability inherent in low-frequency variability will be assessed and compared with results from global studies. Spatial mapping of the probabilistic results will be implemented at a website that will allow users to construct pan-Arctic maps of the probability-of-exceedance of a threshold of a selected variable in a particular timeslice. Finally, we will provide an Arctic focus for the seasonal-to-decadal predictability of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5), which will enable the diagnosis of Arctic predictability inherent in the initial states of the ocean and surface variables (snow, ice). The broader impacts of the proposed project lie in the utilization of the results by the user community (stakeholders, planners, and Arctic communities). The products of this study will link the science of Arctic change, as captured by Arctic observations and global climate models, with a "responding" component that includes adaptation and mitigation.

拟议的项目将回答北极环境变化研究（SEARCH）的主要问题之一：“北极系统在多大程度上是可预测的？” 该项目将利用地表气温、降水、海平面压力和海冰覆盖的观测记录来量化近期（季节性到十年）的可预测性。近期预测将被纳入基于最近变化记录的概率框架中，即未来一段时间（1、2、5、10年）将出现温度、降水、压力和海冰变化的各种增量。 长期可预测性将根据一系列全球气候模型的输出，以十年变化的可能性来量化，并将这些可能性整合到模型和强迫情景中。 将评估低频变异性固有的潜在可预测性，并与全球研究的结果进行比较。 概率结果的空间映射将在一个网站上实现，该网站将允许用户构建特定时间段内选定变量的阈值超出概率的泛北极地图。 最后，我们将为耦合模型比对项目 5 (CMIP5) 的季节到年代际可预测性提供北极焦点，这将能够诊断海洋和表面变量（雪、冰）初始状态所固有的北极可预测性。 拟议项目的更广泛影响在于用户社区（利益相关者、规划者和北极社区）对结果的利用。 这项研究的产品将把北极观测和全球气候模型捕捉到的北极变化科学与包括适应和缓解在内的“响应”部分联系起来。