Collaborative Research: Arctic extreme temperature and precipitation - Detection and projection of their climatic change and physical causes

在北极，极端温度和降水的变化可能会特别大，据预测，北极将出现一些最严重的人为变暖。在过去和未来情景的观测和模拟中，极端温度和降水的物理原因的一致性可以表明预估变化的稳健性。几个模式对极端事件的一致模拟可以提供更多的极端事件样本，从而对极端事件的变化风险进行更有信心的评估。PI将利用观测记录和CORDEX（区域）和CMIP5（全球）气候模拟程序的输出，调查北极极端温度和降水事件可能发生的变化。该项目旨在通过一个分析框架来检测、归因和理解极端温度或降水的变化，该分析框架既关注极端温度或降水事件，也关注支持极端温度或降水事件的物理过程。PI将使用一种模式识别工具——自组织地图（SOMs）来评估极端降水过程中观察到的和模拟的变化，该工具允许构建极端事件集合的连贯、多元视图。所开发的方法也将适用于对地球其他区域极端现象的研究，从而扩大评估极端现象变化及其潜在物理原因的能力。该项目将培养新一代科学家，使他们具备对极端气候变化及其预测中的不确定性进行综合分析的能力。

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes could be especially large in the Arctic, which is projected to have some of the greatest anthropogenic warming. Consistency of physical causes of extreme temperature and precipitation in observations and in simulations of past and future scenarios can indicate the robustness of projected changes. Consistent simulations of extremes by several models can provide much greater sampling of extreme events, leading to more confident assessment of the changing risk of extreme events. The PI's will investigate possible changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Arctic using observational records and output from the CORDEX (regional) and CMIP5 (global) climate modeling programs. The project aims to detect, attribute, and understand changes in extreme temperature or precipitation through an analytical framework that focuses on both the extreme temperature or precipitation events and the physical processes which support them. The PI's will assess observed and simulated changes in extreme precipitation processes using a pattern-recognition tool, Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs), that allows construction of a coherent, multivariate view of collections of extreme events. The methods developed will also have application to studies of extremes in other regions of the planet, extending capacity for assessing changes in extremes and their underlying physical causes. The project will train a new generation of scientists equipped to perform ensemble analysis of the changes in extremes and the uncertainties in their projection.