Collaborative Research: Understanding Arctic Marine Biogeochemical Response to Climate Change for Seasonal to Decadal Prediction Using Regional and Global Climate System Models

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The Arctic Ocean is experiencing rapid and dramatic environmental changes related to global warming. These changes affect the arctic marine carbon cycle as part of complex and coupled system interactions between the ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere and land surfaces, with important feedbacks to the global Earth System, including altering the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Previous and ongoing studies have laid the foundations for improving the understanding of arctic carbon sinks and sources using observational studies, regional ice-ocean modeling, and recent global carbon cycle simulations. However, there remain large uncertainties in the understanding of variability and change in the arctic marine carbon budget that are difficult to reconcile with existing tools.This project will use the Regional Arctic System Model, comprised of marine biogeochemistry components in the eddy-resolving ocean and sea ice models to advance understanding and prediction of the arctic biogeochemical system, including shelf-basin and vertical nutrient exchange, the subsurface chlorophyll maximum, ice edge and under ice blooms and their role in ecosystem response to climate change. It builds on the recent and ongoing research by the team of investigators, including the development and evaluation of the marine biogeochemistry components for global sea ice/ocean models and the high resolution Regional Arctic System Model. The model simulates mass and energy exchange between sea ice, ocean, atmosphere and land on decadal timescales, with regionally constrained variability using observationally based atmospheric and oceanic datasets at lateral boundaries. The research will: (i) evaluate and refine the established ocean marine biogeochemistry model, and (ii) add a newly developed sea ice algal biogeochemistry component within the existing model infrastructure. These model enhancements will help better quantify variability, complexity, and change in arctic marine primary production. The overarching goal of this study is to achieve a comprehensive understanding of interactions between physical system components and the arctic marine carbon cycle, and to advance arctic system prediction at seasonal to centennial time scales with quantified uncertainty.