Complexity, Uncertainty, and Macroeconomic Policy in the Global Economy

全球经济的复杂性、不确定性和宏观经济政策

• 批准号: 1024619
• 负责人: Ricardo Caballero
• 金额: $ 21.74万
• 依托单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-08-01 至 2015-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1024619&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Complexity; Uncertainty; Macroeconomic; Policy; Global

Complexity, Uncertainty, and Macroeconomic Policy in the Global EconomyIntellectual MeritThe large global demand for store-of-value financial instruments accelerated the pace of complex financial innovations. The enormous confusion and fear caused by the sudden unravelling of many of the markets which were built on these innovations played a central role in the recent global financial crisis. It is no coincidence that the most effective economic policies implemented during this episode targeted the alleviation of this fear and confusion by providing extensive public guarantees. The purpose of this project is to provide a formal underpinning to each of these elements within a macroeconomic framework: The global macroeconomic forces behind financial innovation, complexity, Knightian uncertainty (fear), and the optimal policy response in settings where these ingredients play a central role. The intellectual merit of this proposal is to provide a new perspective on the endogenous sources of systemic fragility in a modern and global financial system. The goal is to provide a new set of macroeconomic models in which financial innovation stems from global macroeconomic forces, and shocks arise from the complexity of the financial network and the panics caused by the unmeasurable exposures that can arise from interacting with the financial network during times of systemic distress. While the core of the project is theoretical, it will be context-based (i.e., use extensive financial data to support the specific modeling). The PI also intends to use the models as an organizing device to make proposals on the kind of data that needs to be collected to measure the buildup of systemic risk in a financial system.Broader ImpactThe broader impact of this proposal is to offer a foundation for a policy framework to deal with some of the most damaging aspects of financial crises and panics. Since the purpose of the project is to improve policy design, but to do so with formal models, its educational value beyond the specific models is to bring closer together the concerns of policymakers and the interests of Ph.D. students.

全球经济中的复杂性、不确定性和宏观经济政策知识产权全球对保值型金融工具的巨大需求加快了复杂金融创新的步伐。建立在这些创新之上的许多市场突然崩溃，造成了巨大的混乱和恐惧，在最近的全球金融危机中发挥了核心作用。这一时期实施的最有效的经济政策旨在通过提供广泛的公共担保来缓解这种恐惧和困惑，这并非巧合。本项目的目的是为宏观经济框架中的每一个要素提供一个正式的基础：金融创新背后的全球宏观经济力量、复杂性、奈特式不确定性（恐惧），以及在这些要素发挥核心作用的环境下的最佳政策反应。这一提议的理论价值在于，它为现代和全球金融体系中系统性脆弱性的内生根源提供了一个新的视角。我们的目标是提供一套新的宏观经济模型，其中金融创新源于全球宏观经济力量，冲击源于金融网络的复杂性，以及在系统性危机时期与金融网络互动可能产生的不可衡量的风险敞口所引起的恐慌。虽然项目的核心是理论的，但它将是基于上下文的（即，使用广泛的财务数据来支持特定的建模）。PI还打算将这些模型作为一种组织手段，就需要收集的数据提出建议，以衡量金融体系中系统性风险的累积。更广泛的影响这一提议的更广泛的影响是为一个政策框架提供一个基础，以应对金融危机和恐慌中一些最具破坏性的方面。由于该项目的目的是改进政策设计，但通过正式模型来实现，因此其教育价值超越了具体模型，将政策制定者的关注点与博士生的兴趣更紧密地联系在一起。