Macroeconomic Policy with Illiquid Financial Markets

金融市场在经济波动中起着积极和消极的作用。本项目的重点是后者的作用及其对实际和最佳宏观经济政策的影响。由于新兴经济体特别受到金融不发达及其后果的影响，它们本身既是研究对象，也是隔离影响发达经济体的金融机制的良好手段。因此，本项目侧重于新兴经济体，但也吸取了更普遍的经验教训。该项目的出发点是新兴经济体受到两种主要形式的金融摩擦影响的视角。它们与国际金融市场的联系薄弱，国内金融市场不发达。这些因素结合在一起，导致偶尔发生外部危机，而国内行为者对预防行动的均衡低估，使外部危机更有可能发生，也更严重。 在这种情况下，调查员问，并试图提供理论和经验的答案，如问题：什么是适当的货币政策在危机及其前奏？国内和国际流动性之间的潜在分离对答案有何影响？货币政策在何种程度和何种情况下可以替代缺失的国内保险市场？这一角色如何受到责任美元化的影响？为什么后者在通货膨胀消退后仍长期存在？新兴经济体保险不足问题的背后是什么？对中央银行行为的标准政治经济学分析如何受到周期性危机的影响？对于金融市场不发达的经济体，什么是最佳汇率制度？

Financial markets play positive and negative roles in economic fluctuations. This project focuses on the latter roles and their impact on actual and optimal macroeconomic policy. Since emerging economies are particularly affected by financial underdevelopment and its consequences, they are both an object of study in themselves, and a good device to isolate the financial mechanisms that affect developed economies as well. Consequently, this project focuses on emerging economies but extracts more general lessons as well. The starting point of the project is a perspective where emerging economies are affected by two main forms of financial frictions. They have weak links with international financial markets and domestic financial markets are underdeveloped. The combination of these ingredients lead to occasional external crises, which are made more likely and severe by the equilibrium undervaluation of precautionary actions by domestic agents. Within this context the investigator asks and attempts to provide theoretical and empirical answers to questions such as: What is the appropriate monetary policy during crises and their prelude? How is the answer affected by the potential separation between domestic and international liquidity? To what extent and under which circumstances can monetary policy substitute for missing domestic insurance markets? How is this role affected by liability dollarization? Why does the latter persist long after inflation has subsided? What is behind the underinsurance problem of emerging economies? How is the standard political-economy analysis of central bank behavior affected by the presence of recurrent crises? What is the optimal exchange rate system for economies with underdeveloped financial markets?