Macroeconomic Policy with Illiquid Financial Markets

金融市场在经济波动中起着积极和消极的作用。本项目侧重于后一种作用及其对实际和最佳宏观经济政策的影响。由于新兴经济体尤其受到金融欠发达及其后果的影响，它们本身既是研究的对象，也是隔离影响发达经济体的金融机制的好工具。因此，该项目将重点放在新兴经济体，但也提取了更普遍的经验教训。该项目的出发点是从新兴经济体受到两种主要形式的金融摩擦影响的角度出发。与国际金融市场联系薄弱，国内金融市场不发达。这些因素结合在一起，偶尔会导致外部危机，而国内机构对预防行动的均衡低估，使这些危机变得更有可能、更严重。在这种背景下，研究人员提出并试图从理论和经验上回答以下问题：危机期间的适当货币政策是什么？危机的前奏是什么？国内和国际流动性之间的潜在分离对答案有何影响？在何种程度和何种情况下，货币政策可以弥补国内保险市场的缺失？负债美元化对这一角色有何影响？为什么后者在通胀消退后仍会持续很长时间？新兴经济体保险不足问题的背后是什么？反复出现的危机对央行行为的标准政治经济学分析有何影响？对于金融市场不发达的经济体，最优的汇率制度是什么？

Financial markets play positive and negative roles in economic fluctuations. This project focuses on the latter roles and their impact on actual and optimal macroeconomic policy. Since emerging economies are particularly affected by financial underdevelopment and its consequences, they are both an object of study in themselves, and a good device to isolate the financial mechanisms that affect developed economies as well. Consequently, this project focuses on emerging economies but extracts more general lessons as well. The starting point of the project is a perspective where emerging economies are affected by two main forms of financial frictions. They have weak links with international financial markets and domestic financial markets are underdeveloped. The combination of these ingredients lead to occasional external crises, which are made more likely and severe by the equilibrium undervaluation of precautionary actions by domestic agents. Within this context the investigator asks and attempts to provide theoretical and empirical answers to questions such as: What is the appropriate monetary policy during crises and their prelude? How is the answer affected by the potential separation between domestic and international liquidity? To what extent and under which circumstances can monetary policy substitute for missing domestic insurance markets? How is this role affected by liability dollarization? Why does the latter persist long after inflation has subsided? What is behind the underinsurance problem of emerging economies? How is the standard political-economy analysis of central bank behavior affected by the presence of recurrent crises? What is the optimal exchange rate system for economies with underdeveloped financial markets?