Macroeconomic Policy with Illiquid Financial Markets

金融市场对经济波动既有积极作用，也有消极作用。本项目侧重后一种作用及其对实际和最佳宏观经济政策的影响。由于新兴经济体特别受金融欠发达及其后果的影响，它们本身既是研究对象，也是隔离影响发达经济体的金融机制的良好工具。因此，本项目侧重于新兴经济体，但也从中汲取了更普遍的经验教训。该项目的出发点是新兴经济体受到两种主要金融摩擦影响的视角。与国际金融市场联系薄弱，国内金融市场不发达。这些因素加在一起导致偶尔的外部危机，由于均衡地低估了国内机构的预防行动，这种危机更有可能发生，也更严重。在此背景下，研究者提出并试图为以下问题提供理论和实证的答案：在危机及其前奏期间，什么是合适的货币政策？国内和国际流动性的潜在分离对答案有何影响？货币政策能在多大程度上、在何种情况下替代缺失的国内保险市场？负债美元化如何影响这个角色？为什么后者在通胀消退后仍持续了很长时间？新兴经济体保险不足问题的背后是什么？对中央银行行为的标准政治经济分析如何受到经常性危机的影响？对于金融市场不发达的经济体来说，最优的汇率制度是什么？

Financial markets play positive and negative roles in economic fluctuations. This project focuses on the latter roles and their impact on actual and optimal macroeconomic policy. Since emerging economies are particularly affected by financial underdevelopment and its consequences, they are both an object of study in themselves, and a good device to isolate the financial mechanisms that affect developed economies as well. Consequently, this project focuses on emerging economies but extracts more general lessons as well. The starting point of the project is a perspective where emerging economies are affected by two main forms of financial frictions. They have weak links with international financial markets and domestic financial markets are underdeveloped. The combination of these ingredients lead to occasional external crises, which are made more likely and severe by the equilibrium undervaluation of precautionary actions by domestic agents. Within this context the investigator asks and attempts to provide theoretical and empirical answers to questions such as: What is the appropriate monetary policy during crises and their prelude? How is the answer affected by the potential separation between domestic and international liquidity? To what extent and under which circumstances can monetary policy substitute for missing domestic insurance markets? How is this role affected by liability dollarization? Why does the latter persist long after inflation has subsided? What is behind the underinsurance problem of emerging economies? How is the standard political-economy analysis of central bank behavior affected by the presence of recurrent crises? What is the optimal exchange rate system for economies with underdeveloped financial markets?