Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in Models and Observations

在这个项目下进行的工作旨在确定负责马登-朱利安涛动（MJO）发展和传播的基本机制。马登-朱利安涛动是在印度洋形成并缓慢向东传播的一种大规模降水和大气环流异常模式。MJO与干旱、洪水和热带气旋（包括墨西哥湾的飓风）有关。这项研究主要是围绕使用大气环流模式进行的实验进行的，该模式经过修改，可以产生可信的MJO模拟。这项工作将以MJO是一种水汽模式的假设为指导，该模式被风蒸发反馈（发生在西风条件下）破坏，通过水平水汽平流向东传播，其中基本动力学受到控制热带水汽场的过程的调节。模拟工作还得到了印度洋系泊浮标对风和降水的分析以及卫星观测的补充。由于MJO的巨大社会影响和信息的实际效用，这项工作将产生更广泛的影响，这些信息有助于对MJO的预测性理解的发展。该项目还将包括研究生培训和博士后支持，从而培养下一代科学家。

Work conducted under this project seeks to determine the underlying mechanisms responsible for the development and propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a large-scale pattern of precipitation and atmospheric circulation anomalies which forms in the Indian Ocean and propagates slowly eastward. The MJO is associated with droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones (including hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico). The research is primarily organized around experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model which has been modified to produce credible MJO simulations. The work will be guided by the hypothesis that the MJO is a moisture mode which is destabilized by wind-evaporation feedback (occurring under westerly wind conditions), which propagates eastward through horizontal moisture advection, and in which the essential dynamics are regulated by the processes that control the tropical moisture field. The modeling work is complemented by analysis of wind and precipitation from moored buoys in the Indian Ocean and satellite observations.The work will have broader impacts due to the large societal impacts of the MJO and the practical utility of information which contributes to the development of a predictive understanding of the MJO. The project will also include graduate student training and postdoctoral support, thereby developing the next generation of scientists.