Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in Models and Observations

该项目开展的工作旨在确定马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）发展和传播的根本机制，这是一种在印度洋形成并向东缓慢传播的大规模降水和大气环流异常模式。 MJO 与干旱、洪水和热带气旋（包括墨西哥湾的飓风）有关。 该研究主要围绕使用大气环流模型进行的实验进行组织，该模型经过修改以产生可靠的 MJO 模拟。 这项工作将以这样的假设为指导：MJO 是一种因风蒸发反馈（在西风条件下发生）而不稳定的湿度模式，它通过水平湿度平流向东传播，并且其中基本动力学受到控制热带湿度场的过程的调节。 印度洋系泊浮标的风和降水分析以及卫星观测对建模工作进行了补充。由于 MJO 的巨大社会影响以及有助于发展对 MJO 预测性理解的信息的实际用途，这项工作将产生更广泛的影响。 该项目还将包括研究生培训和博士后支持，从而培养下一代科学家。

Work conducted under this project seeks to determine the underlying mechanisms responsible for the development and propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a large-scale pattern of precipitation and atmospheric circulation anomalies which forms in the Indian Ocean and propagates slowly eastward. The MJO is associated with droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones (including hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico). The research is primarily organized around experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model which has been modified to produce credible MJO simulations. The work will be guided by the hypothesis that the MJO is a moisture mode which is destabilized by wind-evaporation feedback (occurring under westerly wind conditions), which propagates eastward through horizontal moisture advection, and in which the essential dynamics are regulated by the processes that control the tropical moisture field. The modeling work is complemented by analysis of wind and precipitation from moored buoys in the Indian Ocean and satellite observations.The work will have broader impacts due to the large societal impacts of the MJO and the practical utility of information which contributes to the development of a predictive understanding of the MJO. The project will also include graduate student training and postdoctoral support, thereby developing the next generation of scientists.