Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in Models and Observations

在该项目下开展的工作旨在确定造成马登-朱利安振荡发展和传播的基本机制，马登-朱利安振荡是在印度洋形成并缓慢向东传播的大规模降水和大气环流异常模式。 MJO与干旱、洪水和热带气旋（包括墨西哥湾的飓风）有关。 这项研究主要是围绕使用大气环流模型的实验进行的，该模型经过修改，可以产生可信的MJO模拟。 这项工作将指导的假设，MJO是一个水分模式，这是不稳定的风蒸发反馈（西风条件下发生），通过水平水分平流向东传播，并在其中的基本动态调节的过程中，控制热带水分场。 建模工作得到了印度洋系泊浮标和风和降水分析以及卫星观测的补充。由于MJO的巨大社会影响以及有助于对MJO进行预测性理解的信息的实用性，这项工作将产生更广泛的影响。 该项目还将包括研究生培训和博士后支持，从而培养下一代科学家。

Work conducted under this project seeks to determine the underlying mechanisms responsible for the development and propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a large-scale pattern of precipitation and atmospheric circulation anomalies which forms in the Indian Ocean and propagates slowly eastward. The MJO is associated with droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones (including hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico). The research is primarily organized around experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model which has been modified to produce credible MJO simulations. The work will be guided by the hypothesis that the MJO is a moisture mode which is destabilized by wind-evaporation feedback (occurring under westerly wind conditions), which propagates eastward through horizontal moisture advection, and in which the essential dynamics are regulated by the processes that control the tropical moisture field. The modeling work is complemented by analysis of wind and precipitation from moored buoys in the Indian Ocean and satellite observations.The work will have broader impacts due to the large societal impacts of the MJO and the practical utility of information which contributes to the development of a predictive understanding of the MJO. The project will also include graduate student training and postdoctoral support, thereby developing the next generation of scientists.