Collaborative Research: Understanding Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Initiation with DYNAmics of the Madden-julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) Observations and a Hierarchy of Models

该项目将通过一系列数值模型进行实验，以提高对马登-朱利安涛动（MJO）的理解。马登-朱利安涛动是一种形成于印度洋并缓慢向东传播至赤道太平洋中部的大规模天气模式。该项目是马登-朱利安振荡动力学（DYNAMO）野外活动的一个组成部分，该活动将在2011年10月至2012年3月期间从印度洋的船只、岛屿和飞机上收集观测数据。该实地活动是由美国国家科学基金会、美国国家海洋和大气管理局、能源部和海军研究办公室以及包括印度、日本、马尔代夫、法国和其他几个国家在内的其他国际伙伴共同资助的多机构共同努力的结果。该项目的具体目标是测试DYNAMO关于湿润过程和特定对流种群在MJO启动中的作用的假设，评估模型性能，并为模型开发提供反馈。该项目的具体任务是1)分析DYNAMO观测结果，直接测试DYNAMO假设，并为进一步的建模工作提供背景和目标；2)利用明确表示湿对流的全球模式进行后投实验，以增强DYNAMO观测，约束大尺度预算，并测试各种过程在MJO启动中的作用；3)将观测结果与有限区域的云系统解析模式（CSRM）结果进行比较，前者采用DYNAMO探测阵列的传统强迫方式，后者采用更理论化的强迫参数化模式；4)比较采用相同强迫方法的有限域CSRMs和单列对流参数化模式的结果；5)利用上述步骤的结果改进和测试NCAR全球气候模式的积云参数化。项目中使用的具体DYNAMO观测数据包括来自无线电探空网络的温度、湿度和平流趋势剖面、雷达观测以及由海军研究办公室资助的综合地表通量数据集。这个项目的动机，更广泛地说，DYNAMO来自MJO影响全球天气和气候的许多方式。MJO调节着亚洲和澳大利亚季风系统的活跃和中断期，充当着厄尔尼诺事件的强迫因子，当它传播到太平洋时，影响着美国的天气。太平洋上的MJO活动对墨西哥湾的飓风形成有很强的影响。因此，对MJO的改进预测可以实现对其全球天气和气候影响的长期预测（长达两周），而在这个项目下进行的研究可以作为MJO预测取得这种进展的基础。此外，该项目将为三名研究生和一名博士后提供支持和培训，从而促进下一代热带气象学和气候学科学家。该项目还将支持一系列外展活动，包括招募少数民族学生参加STEM学科的研究生教育，在K-8学校进行演讲，以及在受支持机构的全机构外展活动中开展DYNAMO和mjo主题活动。

This project will conduct a series of experiments with a hierarchy of numerical models to improve understanding of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a large-scale weather pattern that forms in the Indian Ocean and propagates slowly eastward into the central equatorial Pacific. The project is one component of the DYNAmics of the Madden-julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign, in which observations will be collected in the Indian Ocean from ships, islands, and aircraft between October 2011 and March 2012. The field campaign is a multi-agency effort with funding from NSF, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Department of Energy, and the Office of Naval Research, with additional international partners including India, Japan, the Maldives, France, and several other countries.The specific goals of this project are to test DYNAMO hypotheses on the roles of moistening processes and specific convective populations in MJO initiation, evaluate model performance, and provide feedback for model development. Specific tasks of the project are 1) to analyze the DYNAMO observations, both to test the DYNAMO hypotheses directly and to provide context and targets for further modeling efforts; 2) to perform and analyze hindcast experiments with global models that explicitly represent moist convection to augment DYNAMO observations in constraining the large-scale budgets and testing the roles of various processes in MJO initiation; 3) To compare observations with results from cloud-system-resolving models (CSRM) on limited domains, both forced in the traditional way using tendencies derived from the DYNAMO sounding array and in a more theoretical mode with forcing parameterized interactively; 4) to compare results from the limited domain CSRMs and single column models with convective parameterizations using the same forcing methods; and 5) To use results from the previous steps to improve and test a cumulus parameterization in a version of the NCAR global climate model. Specific DYNAMO observations to be used in the project include the temperature, moisture, and advective tendency profiles from the radiosonde network, radar observations, and an integrated surface flux dataset funded by the Office of Naval Research.Motivation for this project and more generally for DYNAMO comes from the many ways in which the MJO affects weather and climate worldwide. The MJO regulates the active and break periods of the Asian and Australian monsoon systems, serves as a forcing agent for El Nino events, and, when it propagates into the Pacific ocean, impacts weather over the United States. MJO activity over the Pacific Ocean has a strong influence on hurricane formation in the Gulf of Mexico. Improved prediction of the MJO could thus allow long-lead forecasts (up to two weeks) of its worldwide weather and climate impacts, and research conducted under this project could serve as the basis for such advances in MJO prediction. In addition, this project will provide support and training to three graduate students and a postdoctoral fellow, thereby promoting the next generation of scientists in tropical meteorology and climatology. The project will also support a range of outreach activities including recruitment of minority students to graduate education in a STEM discipline, presentations in K-8 schools, and DYNAMO and MJO-themed activities at institution-wide outreach events at the supported institutions.