Rossby wave trains and their waveguides: dynamics, predictability and forecast errors (RW-GUIDE)

罗斯贝波列及其波导：动力学、可预测性和预测误差 (RW-GUIDE)

• 批准号: 199707443
• 负责人: Privatdozent Dr. Michael Riemer
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Geographisches Institut
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Units
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2010-12-31 至 2015-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/199707443?language=en
• 关键词: Rossby; wave; trains; their; waveguides

High-amplitude Rossby wave trains can trigger severe weather events in the North-Atlantic European region. The extended lifetime of such precursor wave trains may be exploited to improve the forecast of severe weather events. Our knowledge of the predictability and forecast errors associated with Rossby wave trains and their waveguides, however, is limited. We propose to first diagnose the physical and dynamical processes that govern the propagation of synopic-scale Rossby wave trains and the formation and maintenance of their waveguides. More specifically, barotropic, baroclinic, and diabatic contributions will be quantified. We will use the ERA-interim and Year Of Tropical Convection data sets. A large number of cases shall be considered focusing on high impact weather events. Two complementary methods based on inversion of potential vorticity and on trajectory analysis will be used. We will then determine objectively the predictability of the wave trains from ensemble data, and the forecast error structure of waveguides from the deterministic ECMWF forecast. These analyses will be combined to link predictability and forecast error characteristics to the physical processes that govern the evolution of the Rossby wave – waveguide couplet.

高振幅罗斯贝波列可能引发北大西洋欧洲地区的恶劣天气事件。可以利用这种前兆波列的延长寿命来改进对恶劣天气事件的预​​报。然而，我们对与罗斯贝波列及其波导相关的可预测性和预测误差的了解是有限的。我们建议首先诊断控制天气尺度罗斯贝波列的传播及其波导的形成和维护的物理和动力学过程。更具体地说，正压、斜压和非绝热的贡献将被量化。我们将使用 ERA-interim 和 Year Of Tropical Convection 数据集。应考虑大量针对高影响天气事件的案例。将使用基于位涡反演和轨迹分析的两种互补方法。然后，我们将根据集合数据客观地确定波列的可预测性，并根据确定性 ECMWF 预测确定波导的预测误差结构。这些分析将结合起来，将可预测性和预测误差特征与控制罗斯贝波-波导对演化的物理过程联系起来。