Collaborative Research: Hazard Events, Risk Perception, and Public Support for Disaster Risk Reduction in the Americas: a 17-Country Study

合作研究：美洲灾害事件、风险认知和公众对减少灾害风险的支持：一项 17 个国家的研究

• 批准号: 2019796
• 负责人: Elizabeth Zechmeister
• 金额: $ 22万
• 依托单位: Vanderbilt University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-09-01 至 2023-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2019796&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Hazard; Events; Risk

This project greatly improves scholars’ and practitioners’ understanding of how governments can successfully implement disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies—policies that are fundamental to fostering and sustaining more resilient communities. Specifically, it creates new knowledge about the factors and conditions that increase or decrease public support for such key DRR policies as building codes and construction regulations. Researchers at Florida International University (FIU) and Vanderbilt University will collect and analyze public opinion data from 17 countries (16 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries and the U.S.) on experiences with major hazard events, perceptions of future risk, and—crucially—support for DRR policies. Researchers will also look closely at whether and how people’s views change after experiencing a disaster, and the different forms that such experiences may take. The project advances scientific understanding of the efficacy and social sustainability of DRR policy implementation, creating an open-access database available to disaster researchers and policymakers everywhere. It also promotes research community cooperation across academic disciplines and will contribute to creating, in the U.S., a more diverse and globally competitive STEM workforce. Perhaps most importantly, this research helps support strategic efforts in the U.S. (and abroad) to strengthen policies and programs to reduce human and economic losses from disasters. It will also serve U.S. foreign policy interests—including economic, humanitarian and security interests— since hazard events in Latin America and the Caribbean affect U.S. investment, trade, travel, foreign assistance, immigration flows and patterns, and, ultimately, national security. Furthermore, this project will increase public engagement with and appreciation of science and technology, as researchers will disseminate public-facing reports on key findings about hazard event experiences, public support for risk reduction, and “windows of opportunity” for achieving enhanced building survivability and safety. Research for this project will proceed in two phases. In Phase 1, the project team will collect individual-level data on risk perception, attitudes towards risk reduction, and support for DRR policies and enforcement in the 17 countries via a module of DRR questions placed on the 2021wave of Vanderbilt University’s highly-regarded AmericasBarometer survey. Using multi-level mixed-effects regression-style analysis (and controlling for a variety of individual and contextual variables), researchers at FIU and Vanderbilt will test hypotheses on the effects of three sets of factors on support for DRR policies and practices: (1) Disaster risk (perception of the likelihood, severity, and type of hazard events; perception of risk as individual or general; national and local hazard risk profiles); (2) Experience with disasters (as an individual/family, community, or nation); and (3) Governance (trust in government; perceptions of effectiveness / integrity in DRR; personal experience with corruption; national levels of corruption). While these multi-country results are valuable on their own, they also serve as a baseline for understanding how disasters themselves might shape public support for DRR. In Phase 2, the research team will select one LAC country affected by a major hazard event and home in on the impact of experiencing such events: whether disasters as “focusing events” shift public opinion and help open “windows of opportunity” for improving DRR policies and their implementation. The team will deploy post-event surveys and compare pre- vs. post-event public opinion; assess the extent and duration of any changes; and analyze causes of change over time at the individual level. Project findings will provide critical new insights into when and how governments, the private sector, non-governmental organizations, and other stakeholders could improve DRR policies that save lives and protect property. Finally, this research will advance knowledge in several fields of scholarship, including public opinion, public policy, the social psychology of risk, and the multidisciplinary study of disasters.This award reflects NSF’s statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation’s intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目极大地提高了学者和实践者对政府如何成功实施减少灾害风险（DRR）政策的理解，这些政策对于培育和维持更具复原力的社区至关重要。具体来说，它创造了关于增加或减少公众对诸如建筑规范和建筑法规等关键减灾政策支持的因素和条件的新知识。佛罗里达国际大学（FIU）和范德比尔特大学（Vanderbilt University）的研究人员将收集和分析来自17个国家（16个拉丁美洲和加勒比（LAC）国家和美国）的关于重大灾害事件的经验、对未来风险的看法以及至关重要的DRR政策支持的民意数据。研究人员还将密切关注人们在经历灾难后的看法是否以及如何改变，以及这种经历可能采取的不同形式。该项目促进了对减灾政策实施的有效性和社会可持续性的科学理解，为世界各地的灾害研究人员和决策者创建了一个开放获取的数据库。它还促进了跨学科的研究社区合作，并将有助于在美国建立一支更加多样化和具有全球竞争力的STEM劳动力队伍。也许最重要的是，这项研究有助于支持美国（和国外）加强政策和项目的战略努力，以减少灾害造成的人员和经济损失。它还将服务于美国的外交政策利益——包括经济、人道主义和安全利益——因为拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的灾害事件影响到美国的投资、贸易、旅游、对外援助、移民流动和模式，并最终影响到国家安全。此外，该项目将增加公众对科学技术的参与和欣赏，因为研究人员将传播面向公众的报告，内容包括灾害事件经验的关键发现、公众对降低风险的支持，以及实现增强建筑生存能力和安全性的“机会之窗”。该项目的研究将分两个阶段进行。在第一阶段，项目团队将通过范德比尔特大学备受尊敬的“美国晴雨表”调查2021年浪潮中的DRR问题模块，收集个人层面的风险认知、对降低风险的态度、以及对17个国家DRR政策和执法的支持程度的数据。利用多层次混合效应回归式分析（并控制各种个体和背景变量），FIU和Vanderbilt的研究人员将测试三组因素对支持DRR政策和实践的影响的假设：(1)灾害风险（对灾害事件的可能性、严重性和类型的感知；对个人或一般风险的感知；国家和地方灾害风险概况）；(2)经历灾难（作为个人/家庭、社区或国家）；(3)治理（对政府的信任；对减灾工作的有效性/完整性的看法；个人的腐败经历；国家的腐败程度）。虽然这些多国结果本身就很有价值，但它们也可以作为了解灾害本身如何影响公众对减灾的支持的基线。在第二阶段，研究小组将选择一个受重大灾害事件影响的拉丁美洲和加勒比地区国家，研究经历此类事件的影响：作为“焦点事件”的灾害是否会改变公众舆论，并有助于为改善减灾政策及其实施打开“机会之窗”。该小组将开展活动后调查，并比较活动前后的公众意见；评估任何变化的程度和持续时间；并在个人层面上分析随时间变化的原因。项目研究结果将为政府、私营部门、非政府组织和其他利益攸关方何时以及如何改进减少灾害风险政策以挽救生命和保护财产提供重要的新见解。最后，这项研究将推进几个学术领域的知识，包括公众舆论、公共政策、风险的社会心理学和灾害的多学科研究。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。