RAPID: Evaluation of the near term impact of the Deepwater Horizon blowout to the South Florida coast

智力优点：该RAPID项目旨在评估环流中夹带的石油产品如何、在何处以及何时可能影响南佛罗里达海岸。墨西哥湾北方深水沃茨的石油泄漏由于卷入大规模海流系统，正在威胁佛罗里达南部的沿海地区。评估石油的迁移和归宿需要同时考虑到跨越海洋尺度和与沿海生态系统有关的尺度的过程。为此，必须将一系列嵌套海洋和沿海环流模型作为单一应用程序加以综合使用，以便能够确定石油混合物从墨西哥湾较深部分到佛罗里达湾浅水区的路径以及佛罗里达珊瑚礁路径。过去的工作嵌套高分辨率佛罗里达关键模型与墨西哥湾实时混合坐标海洋模型（HYCOM）为基础的海洋预报系统使用多尺度数值建模框架，连接建模系统（CMS）提供了框架，这项研究。这种建模框架，最初开发的幼虫运输和连通性的研究，是非常适合的深水地平线井喷南佛罗里达海岸的影响进行快速评估。CMS具有嵌入式拉格朗日随机粒子模型的层次结构，允许具有个体属性和行为的粒子的概率分散，并且具有跟踪粒子在嵌套域中的三维运动的能力。首先，将通过使用该地区目前可用的最高分辨率业务产品（即，1-4基于HYCOM的海洋预报系统）。为了做到这一点，我们将使CMS适应油气混合物行为（即，流速、密度、粘度、终端速度）和风强迫、蒸发和风化的附加过程。研究人员将使用油混合物行为的包络线，改变模型中颗粒的大小，并通过系统地比较模型结果与欧拉观测的时间序列来改进“油模块”。其次，将模拟飓风对水柱中石油重新分布的影响。鉴于石油预测问题固有的大的不确定性，拟议的研究将产生的石油分散剂混合物的短期影响的统计估计南佛罗里达coast.Broader影响：该项目将提供一个新的理解的运输途径和积累的地区所产生的相互作用的循环与石油混合了大量的分散剂。此外，它将有助于指导其他快速石油产品现场检测工作。从长远来看，拟议的工作将成为研究石油及其风化状态对海洋浮游生物和渔业影响的基线。研究结果还将有助于各机构和学术界开展业务工作，帮助为未来的任何极端事件做好准备。该项目的调查人员将与在墨西哥湾工作的其他科学家合作。目前在海洋和大气科学学院Rosenstiel学术工作队网站（http：//www.rsmas.miami.edu/oil-spill）上的网站链接更新了HYCOM水包裹轨迹，将使用CMS进行扩展，该CMS适应于石油，具有从墨西哥湾区域模型到高分辨率佛罗里达礁岛模型的能力。最后，多尺度CMS框架被设计成一个社区模型，并一直在进行严格的测试。我们计划利用提议的努力，确保在秋季晚些时候公开发布开放源代码和用户指南（http：//www.rsmas.miami.edu/personal/cparis/cms/application.html）。

Intellectual merit: This RAPID project aims to assess how, where, and when the oil products entrained in the Loop Current might impact the South Florida coast. The oil spill from deep waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico is threatening coastal areas in south Florida due to entrainment in the large-scale current system. Assessment of the transport and the fate of the oil require processes extending across oceanic scales and scales relevant to coastal ecosystems to be taken into account simultaneously. To this end, the integrated use of a series of nested ocean and coastal circulation models as a single application is critical in order to be able to identify pathways of the oil mixture from the deeper part of the Gulf of Mexico to the shallow areas of Florida Bay and the Florida coral reef track. Past work in nesting a high-resolution Florida Key model with the Gulf of Mexico real-time Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM)-based Ocean Predictions System using a multi-scale numerical modeling framework, the Connectivity Modeling System (CMS) provides the framework for this study. This modeling framework, originally developed for larval transport and connectivity studies, is well suited for rapid assessment of the impact of the Deepwater Horizon blowout on south Florida coast. The CMS has a hierarchy of embedded Lagrangian Stochastic Particle Models allowing probabilistic dispersion of particles with individual attributes and behaviors and has the capability of tracking the three-dimensional movement of the particles across nested domains. First, the formation of surface slicks, subsurface layers, and deep plumes and their pathways to the Loop Current will be simulated by conducting probabilistic runs of CMS with the highest resolution operational products available yet for the region (i.e., 1-4 km HYCOM-based Ocean Predictions System). In order to do this, we will adapt CMS to oil-gas mixture behavior (i.e., flow rate, density, viscosity, terminal velocity) and add processes of wind forcing, evaporation and weathering. The investigators will use an envelop of oil mixture behavior, varying the size of particles in the model and improve the 'oil module' through systematic comparisons of model results with time series of Eulerian observations. Second, the effect of hurricanes on the redistribution of the oil in the water column will be simulated. Given the large uncertainties inherent in the oil prediction problem, the proposed research will generate statistical estimates of the near-term impact of the oil-dispersant mixture to the South Florida coast.Broader Impacts: This project will provide a new understanding of transport pathways and accumulating areas resulting from the interactions of the circulation with the oil mixed with huge quantities of dispersant. Further, it will help guiding other RAPID efforts on field detection of oil products. In the longer term, the proposed work will constitute a baseline for studying the impact of the oil and its weathered states on the marine meroplankton and on fisheries. Results will also be useful to develop operational efforts in agencies and academia that will help preparedness for any future extreme events. The investigators on this project will collaborate with other scientists working in the Gulf of Mexico.Current website links on the Academic Task Force Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science website (http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/oil-spill) having updates of HYCOM water parcel trajectories will be expanded using the CMS adapted to the oil with its capability to go from the Gulf of Mexico regional model to the high resolution Florida Keys model. Finally, the multi-scale CMS framework is designed to be a community model and has been undergoing rigorous testing. We are planning to use the proposed effort to insure a public release of an open source code and user's guide later in the fall (http:// www.rsmas.miami.edu/personal/cparis/cms/description.html).