RAPID: Evaluation of the near term impact of the Deepwater Horizon blowout to the South Florida coast

知识价值：这个RAPID项目旨在评估环流携带的石油产品可能影响南佛罗里达海岸的方式、地点和时间。由于大规模洋流系统的夹带，墨西哥湾北部深水的石油泄漏正在威胁佛罗里达州南部的沿海地区。评估石油的运输和命运需要同时考虑到跨越海洋尺度和与沿海生态系统有关的尺度的过程。为此，综合使用一系列嵌套的海洋和沿海环流模型作为一个单一的应用程序是至关重要的，以便能够识别石油混合物从墨西哥湾深处到佛罗里达湾和佛罗里达珊瑚礁轨道的浅层区域的路径。过去的工作是利用多尺度数值模拟框架将高分辨率佛罗里达关键模型与墨西哥湾实时混合坐标海洋模型（HYCOM）的海洋预测系统嵌套，而连通性建模系统（CMS）为本研究提供了框架。这个模型框架最初是为幼虫运输和连通性研究而开发的，非常适合于对南佛罗里达海岸深水地平线井喷的影响进行快速评估。CMS具有嵌入的拉格朗日随机粒子模型的层次结构，允许具有单个属性和行为的粒子的概率分散，并具有跟踪粒子在嵌套域中的三维运动的能力。首先，表层浮油、次表层和深层羽流的形成及其通往环流的路径将通过使用该地区目前可用的最高分辨率操作产品（即基于1-4公里hycom的海洋预测系统）进行CMS的概率运行来模拟。为了做到这一点，我们将使CMS适应油气混合物的行为（即流量、密度、粘度、终端速度），并添加风强迫、蒸发和风化过程。研究人员将使用油混合物的行为包络，改变模型中颗粒的大小，并通过系统地比较模型结果与欧拉观测时间序列来改进“油模块”。其次，将模拟飓风对水柱中石油再分配的影响。考虑到石油预测问题中固有的巨大不确定性，拟议的研究将对石油分散剂混合物对南佛罗里达海岸的近期影响进行统计估计。更广泛的影响：该项目将对石油与大量分散剂混合形成的循环相互作用所产生的输送途径和聚集区域提供新的认识。此外，它将有助于指导RAPID在石油产品现场检测方面的其他工作。从长远来看，拟议的工作将构成研究石油及其风化状态对海洋浮游生物和渔业影响的基线。研究结果也将有助于在各机构和学术界开展业务工作，帮助为未来任何极端事件做好准备。该项目的研究人员将与在墨西哥湾工作的其他科学家合作。罗森斯蒂尔海洋与大气科学学院学术工作组网站（http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/oil-spill）上的当前网站链接有HYCOM水包轨迹的更新，将使用适应石油的CMS进行扩展，其能力从墨西哥湾区域模型扩展到高分辨率佛罗里达群岛模型。最后，多尺度CMS框架被设计成一个社区模型，并经过了严格的测试。我们计划使用建议的工作来确保在秋季晚些时候公开发布开源代码和用户指南（http:// www.rsmas.miami.edu/personal/cparis/cms/description.html）。

Intellectual merit: This RAPID project aims to assess how, where, and when the oil products entrained in the Loop Current might impact the South Florida coast. The oil spill from deep waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico is threatening coastal areas in south Florida due to entrainment in the large-scale current system. Assessment of the transport and the fate of the oil require processes extending across oceanic scales and scales relevant to coastal ecosystems to be taken into account simultaneously. To this end, the integrated use of a series of nested ocean and coastal circulation models as a single application is critical in order to be able to identify pathways of the oil mixture from the deeper part of the Gulf of Mexico to the shallow areas of Florida Bay and the Florida coral reef track. Past work in nesting a high-resolution Florida Key model with the Gulf of Mexico real-time Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM)-based Ocean Predictions System using a multi-scale numerical modeling framework, the Connectivity Modeling System (CMS) provides the framework for this study. This modeling framework, originally developed for larval transport and connectivity studies, is well suited for rapid assessment of the impact of the Deepwater Horizon blowout on south Florida coast. The CMS has a hierarchy of embedded Lagrangian Stochastic Particle Models allowing probabilistic dispersion of particles with individual attributes and behaviors and has the capability of tracking the three-dimensional movement of the particles across nested domains. First, the formation of surface slicks, subsurface layers, and deep plumes and their pathways to the Loop Current will be simulated by conducting probabilistic runs of CMS with the highest resolution operational products available yet for the region (i.e., 1-4 km HYCOM-based Ocean Predictions System). In order to do this, we will adapt CMS to oil-gas mixture behavior (i.e., flow rate, density, viscosity, terminal velocity) and add processes of wind forcing, evaporation and weathering. The investigators will use an envelop of oil mixture behavior, varying the size of particles in the model and improve the 'oil module' through systematic comparisons of model results with time series of Eulerian observations. Second, the effect of hurricanes on the redistribution of the oil in the water column will be simulated. Given the large uncertainties inherent in the oil prediction problem, the proposed research will generate statistical estimates of the near-term impact of the oil-dispersant mixture to the South Florida coast.Broader Impacts: This project will provide a new understanding of transport pathways and accumulating areas resulting from the interactions of the circulation with the oil mixed with huge quantities of dispersant. Further, it will help guiding other RAPID efforts on field detection of oil products. In the longer term, the proposed work will constitute a baseline for studying the impact of the oil and its weathered states on the marine meroplankton and on fisheries. Results will also be useful to develop operational efforts in agencies and academia that will help preparedness for any future extreme events. The investigators on this project will collaborate with other scientists working in the Gulf of Mexico.Current website links on the Academic Task Force Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science website (http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/oil-spill) having updates of HYCOM water parcel trajectories will be expanded using the CMS adapted to the oil with its capability to go from the Gulf of Mexico regional model to the high resolution Florida Keys model. Finally, the multi-scale CMS framework is designed to be a community model and has been undergoing rigorous testing. We are planning to use the proposed effort to insure a public release of an open source code and user's guide later in the fall (http:// www.rsmas.miami.edu/personal/cparis/cms/description.html).