Collaborative Research: Developing a Next-Generation Approach to Regional Climate Prediction at High Resolution

人们普遍认识到需要更准确和详细的区域气候预测;工业、地方政府和社会越来越需要充分的理解和预警，以便能够进行适当的规划和适应，减轻气候变异和变化带来的未来成本和破坏。该项目正在解决关键的研究和模型开发问题，旨在分三个阶段改进这种区域预测。国家大气研究中心的嵌套区域气候模型正在进一步开发，包括海洋和陆地耦合，大气化学以及社会和行业用户的决策支持工具。该模型还形成了下一代跨尺度预测模型（MPAS）的测试平台，MPAS是下一代区域天气-气候-海洋预测系统，具有复杂的大气化学成分。 还将开发一些统计和相关的降尺度技术，以便能够更好地评估极端天气系统及其影响。该计划的一个特点是广泛的，跨学科的社区方法和区域气候，恶劣天气，数值模拟，数据同化，大气化学，工业和社会应用专家之间的新合作。将新的预测系统和降尺度方法的开发与社会应用和决策工具的开发直接协调起来，将使每一方都能影响另一方，实现互利。因此，该计划需要大量的智力价值和社会和科学效益。例如，它将使社会和行业能够更早地使用正在发展的预测能力，并导致改进的、紧密耦合的预测和决策系统。这将突出新的社会办法，例如，多年期保险单等长期合同加上长期贷款，在鼓励投资于气候变化情况下具有成本效益的适应措施方面可以发挥的作用。

The need for more accurate and detailed regional climate predictions is widely recognized; industry, local government and society increasingly require sufficient understanding and warning to enable proper planning and adaptation to mitigate future costs and disruptions arising from climate variability and change. This project is addressing critical research and model development issues aimed at improving such regional predictions in a three-phase approach. The Nested Regional Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research is being further developed with the inclusion of ocean and land coupling, atmospheric chemistry, and decision support tools for societal and industry users. This model also forms a test bed for the next generation Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), a next-generation regional weather-climate-ocean prediction system with sophisticated atmospheric chemistry components. A number of statistical and related downscaling techniques will also be developed to enable improved assessment of extreme weather systems and their impacts.Broader Impacts. A feature of the program is the wide, cross-disciplinary community approach and novel collaboration amongst experts in regional climate, severe weather, numerical modeling, data assimilation, atmospheric chemistry, industry, and societal applications. Coordinating the development of the new prediction systems and downscaling approaches directly with societal applications and development of decision tools will enable each to influence the other to their mutual benefit. Thus, the program entails both substantial intellectual merit and societal and scientific benefit. For example, it will enable earlier societal and industry use of the developing predictive capacity and lead to an improved, tightly-coupled predictive and decision system. This will feature novel societal approaches, such as the role that long-term contracts like multi-year insurance policies coupled with long-term loans can play in encouraging investments in cost-effective adaptation measures in the presence of climate change.