Collaborative Research: Developing a Next-Generation Approach to Regional Climate Prediction at High Resolution

合作研究：开发下一代高分辨率区域气候预测方法

• 批准号: 1048834
• 负责人: Gregory Hakim
• 金额: $ 38.1万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-05-15 至 2016-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1048834&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Developing; Next; Generation

The need for more accurate and detailed regional climate predictions is widely recognized; industry, local government and society increasingly require sufficient understanding and warning to enable proper planning and adaptation to mitigate future costs and disruptions arising from climate variability and change. This project is addressing critical research and model development issues aimed at improving such regional predictions in a three-phase approach. The Nested Regional Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research is being further developed with the inclusion of ocean and land coupling, atmospheric chemistry, and decision support tools for societal and industry users. This model also forms a test bed for the next generation Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), a next-generation regional weather-climate-ocean prediction system with sophisticated atmospheric chemistry components. A number of statistical and related downscaling techniques will also be developed to enable improved assessment of extreme weather systems and their impacts.Broader Impacts. A feature of the program is the wide, cross-disciplinary community approach and novel collaboration amongst experts in regional climate, severe weather, numerical modeling, data assimilation, atmospheric chemistry, industry, and societal applications. Coordinating the development of the new prediction systems and downscaling approaches directly with societal applications and development of decision tools will enable each to influence the other to their mutual benefit. Thus, the program entails both substantial intellectual merit and societal and scientific benefit. For example, it will enable earlier societal and industry use of the developing predictive capacity and lead to an improved, tightly-coupled predictive and decision system. This will feature novel societal approaches, such as the role that long-term contracts like multi-year insurance policies coupled with long-term loans can play in encouraging investments in cost-effective adaptation measures in the presence of climate change.

人们对更准确和详细的区域气候预测的需求得到了广泛认可。行业，地方政府和社会越来越需要足够的理解和警告，以便适当计划和适应，以减轻气候变化和变化引起的未来成本和破坏。该项目正在解决旨在以三相方法改善此类区域预测的批判性研究和模型开发问题。国家大气研究中心的嵌套区域气候模型正在进一步开发，包括海洋和土地耦合，大气化学和为社会和行业用户的决策支持工具。该模型还为下一代模型构成了跨量表（MPA）的下一代模型，这是一种下一代区域天气气候 - 海洋预测系统，具有复杂的大气化学成分。 还将开发许多统计和相关的缩减技术，以改善对极端天气系统及其影响的评估。该计划的一个特征是区域气候，恶劣天气，数值建模，数据同化，大气化学，工业和社会应用方面的广泛，跨学科的社区方法和新颖的合作。将新预测系统的开发和缩小方法直接与社会应用和决策工具的发展进行协调，将使每个人都能互相影响彼此的互惠互利。因此，该计划具有实质性的知识分子以及社会和科学利益。例如，它将能够对发展的预测能力进行早期的社会和行业使用，并导致改进，紧密耦合的预测和决策系统。这将采用新颖的社会方法，例如，多年保险单等长期合同以及长期贷款的角色可以鼓励在存在气候变化的情况下对具有成本效益的适应措施进行投资。