P2C2: Paleoclimate Data Assimilation

P2C2：古气候数据同化

• 批准号: 1304263
• 负责人: Gregory Hakim
• 金额: $ 42.26万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-08-01 至 2017-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1304263&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: P2C2; Paleoclimate; Data; Assimilation

Documenting and understanding the past behavior of the climate system provides a critical reference for comparison with future potential climate change. Since the record for instrumental measurements covers only the most recent 100-150 years, indirect ("proxy") measurements must be considered. Quantitative analysis of these proxy data is challenged by the fact that the proxies apply to specific locations, and their relationship to the main feature in the climate system are not well understood.With this project, researchers from the University of Washington build on recent progress in using state-of-the-art tools from the weather prediction community to reconstruct past climate states by a method referred to as paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA). The research involves optimally blending information from climate models and proxy data to reconstruct Earth's climate over a wide range of time scales. PDA provides a transformative synthesis of irregularly spaced pointwise data into global gridded data, similar to reanalysis products derived from weather observations. Reconstructed climate states will be used for hypothesis testing using numerical models to evaluate climate sensitivity and predictability on decadal and longer timescales with robust sample sizes over a wide range of climate states. This research leverages expertise from both the paleoclimate and climate dynamics communities. Further interdisciplinary collaboration will take place through interactions with the PAGES (PAst Global changES) community. Funding supports education and training of a graduate student, as well as outreach activities to schools, community organizations and state agencies.

记录和理解气候系统过去的行为为与未来潜在的气候变化进行比较提供了重要的参考。由于仪器测量的记录仅涵盖最近100-150年，因此必须考虑间接（“替代”）测量。对这些代用数据的定量分析面临挑战，因为代用数据适用于特定的地点，而且它们与气候系统主要特征的关系还没有得到很好的理解。来自华盛顿大学的研究人员利用天气预报界最先进的工具，通过一种被称为古气候数据同化的方法重建过去的气候状态，PDA）。该研究涉及最佳地混合来自气候模型和代用数据的信息，以重建地球在广泛时间尺度上的气候。PDA提供了一种将不规则间隔的逐点数据转化为全球网格数据的转换合成，类似于从天气观测中获得的再分析产品。重建的气候状态将用于假设检验，使用数值模型评估十年期和更长时间尺度上的气候敏感性和可预测性，在广泛的气候状态范围内具有强大的样本量。 这项研究利用了古气候和气候动力学社区的专业知识。进一步的跨学科合作将通过与PAGES（PASt Global Changes）社区的互动进行。资金支持研究生的教育和培训，以及对学校、社区组织和国家机构的外联活动。