P2C2: Dynamical Climate Reconstruction Using Paleoclimate Data and Ensemble State Estimation

P2C2：使用古气候数据和集合状态估计进行动态气候重建

• 批准号: 0902500
• 负责人: Gregory Hakim
• 金额: $ 37万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-01 至 2014-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0902500&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: P2C2; Dynamical; Climate; Reconstruction; Using

Funding is provided to develop quantitative methods that could aid in taking isolated point measurements that are indirectly related to environmental variables and maximizing their ability to characterize past climatic conditions. This research strategy is analogous to the data assimilation approach of weather researchers. Specifically, the researchers will use an extension of the ensemble Kalman filter for assimilating the long-time averages represented by proxy data. The Simplied Parametrization primitivE-Equation DYnamics (SPEEDY) model will be used in this algorithm to assimilate ice-core accumulation for the past 1,000 years. The spatial influence of data for individual ice core records will be quantified, as will the sensitivity of the recovered climate states to the averaging period of the observations. The resulting estimates of the reconstructed climate states will then be analyzed for decadal climate variability, including the leading modes of variability as a function of time. Potential sites for future observations will also be identified using an ensemble approach to paleoclimate network design.The broader impacts involve strong bringing a different quantitative perspective to the analysis of paleoclimate data and providing support for graduate education.

提供的资金用于制定定量方法，以帮助进行与环境变量间接相关的孤立点测量，并最大限度地提高其描述过去气候条件的能力。 这种研究策略类似于气象研究人员的数据同化方法。具体来说，研究人员将使用集合卡尔曼滤波器的扩展来同化代理数据代表的长期平均值。该算法将采用简化参数化连续方程动力学（SPEEDY）模式来同化过去1,000年的冰芯积累。将量化单个冰芯记录数据的空间影响，以及恢复的气候状态对观测平均期的敏感性。然后将对重建的气候状态的估计结果进行年代际气候变率分析，包括作为时间函数的主要变率模态。未来观测的潜在地点也将使用古气候网络设计的整体方法来确定。更广泛的影响包括为古气候数据的分析带来不同的定量视角，并为研究生教育提供支持。