Collaborative Research:Integration of Decadal Climate Predictions, Ecological and Human Decision-Making Models to Support Climate-Resilient Agriculture in the Argentine Pampas

合作研究：十年气候预测、生态和人类决策模型的整合，支持阿根廷潘帕斯草原的气候适应型农业

• 批准号: 1049099
• 负责人: Linda Mearns
• 金额: $ 17万
• 依托单位: University Corporation For Atmospheric Res
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-05-01 至 2015-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1049099&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Integration; Decadal; Climate

The multi-faceted aspects of climate variability and climate change affect a variety of societal sectors, regions and issues, including sustainable development, poverty mitigation and food security. Decision makers at many levels-households, communities, regions and countries-will increasingly need credible information that combines state-of-the-art climate science with an integrative understanding of the dynamics of affected natural/human systems. The overarching goal of this project is to enhance society's capacity to act on regional information, e.g. decadal predictions. In particular, the project seeks to facilitate adaptation to a shifting climate and inform resilient decision-making in agricultural production - a human activity that is critically vulnerable to climate. The geographic focus is the Pampas of central eastern Argentina, one of the main cereal and oilseed producing regions in the world.Well-informed adaptation to climate variability and change requires the capacity to 'translate' knowledge of decadal climate predictions into decision-relevant, sector-specific information and knowledge that is consistent with existing needs, procedures and decision protocols. To enhance the match between capabilities and expectations of decadal climate predictions, a sustained, iterative dialogue is implemented between climate scientists and multiple agricultural stakeholders. The goals of this dialogue are twofold: (i) to understand decision makers? information needs, beliefs, values and priorities, as well as the constraints under which they operate, and (ii) to provide useful feedback to the climate modeling community that will guide future model development and communication. As part of the project modern, rigorous statistical approaches will be applied to investigation of extreme climate events responsible for most societal impacts.This activity has significant broader impacts: understanding the link between climate variability and decision-making is a fundamental issue that affects resource management in regions and sectors throughout the world. The project will provide an integrated analysis of responses to decadal climate predictions in agriculture - a prevalent, real-world natural/human system that plays a central role in global food production, food security and energy production. Project outcomes include guidance and best practices for decision-makers seeking to adapt to climate variability. The collaboration with scientists in Argentina will strengthen the ability of U.S. institutions and investigators to engage in integrative climate and natural/human systems science with a global scope and perspective. The active involvement of climate information producers and decision-makers will enhance considerably the likelihood of research outputs being incorporated into operational practice.

气候多变性和气候变化的多方面影响到各种社会部门、区域和问题，包括可持续发展、减贫和粮食安全。家庭、社区、区域和国家等多个层面的决策者将越来越需要可靠的信息，这些信息将最先进的气候科学与对受影响的自然/人类系统动态的综合理解相结合。该项目的首要目标是提高社会对区域信息采取行动的能力，例如十年期预测。特别是，该项目旨在促进适应不断变化的气候，并为农业生产中的适应性决策提供信息-农业生产是一项极易受气候影响的人类活动。地理重点是阿根廷中东部的潘帕斯草原，这是世界上主要的谷物和油籽生产区之一，对气候变异性和变化的充分知情的适应需要有能力将十年期气候预测的知识“转化”为与决策有关的、具体部门的信息和知识，这些信息和知识与现有的需要、程序和决策协议相一致。为了提高十年期气候预测的能力和期望之间的匹配，气候科学家和多个农业利益相关者之间进行了持续的迭代对话。这一对话有两个目标：（一）了解决策者？信息需求、信念、价值观和优先事项，以及它们运作的限制，以及（ii）向气候建模界提供有用的反馈，以指导未来的模型开发和交流。作为该项目的一部分，将采用现代、严格的统计方法来调查造成大多数社会影响的极端气候事件，这项活动具有重大的广泛影响：了解气候变异性与决策之间的联系是影响全世界各区域和部门资源管理的一个根本问题。该项目将提供对农业十年期气候预测反应的综合分析-农业是一个普遍存在的、现实世界的自然/人类系统，在全球粮食生产、粮食安全和能源生产中发挥着核心作用。项目成果包括为寻求适应气候多变性的决策者提供指导和最佳做法。与阿根廷科学家的合作将加强美国机构和研究人员以全球范围和视角参与综合气候和自然/人类系统科学的能力。气候信息提供者和决策者的积极参与将大大提高研究成果被纳入业务实践的可能性。