Collaborative Research:Integration of Decadal Climate Predictions, Ecological and Human Decision-Making Models to Support Climate-Resilient Agriculture in the Argentine Pampas

气候多变性和气候变化的多方面影响到各种社会部门、区域和问题，包括可持续发展、减贫和粮食安全。许多层面的决策者--家庭、社区、区域和国家--将越来越需要可靠的信息，将最先进的气候科学与对受影响的自然/人类系统动态的综合了解结合起来。该项目的总体目标是加强社会根据区域信息采取行动的能力，例如十年预测。特别是，该项目寻求促进适应不断变化的气候，并为农业生产提供有弹性的决策--这是一种极易受气候影响的人类活动。地理焦点是阿根廷中东部的潘帕斯，这是世界上主要的谷物和油籽产区之一。充分了解气候变化和变化的适应需要有能力将十年气候预测的知识“转化”为与决策相关的、特定部门的信息和知识，并与现有的需求、程序和决策协议保持一致。为了加强十年气候预测能力与预期之间的匹配，气候科学家和多个农业利益攸关方之间开展了持续、反复的对话。这一对话的目标有两个：(I)理解决策者？(2)向气候模型界提供有用的反馈，以指导未来的模型开发和交流。作为该项目的一部分，将采用现代、严格的统计方法对造成大多数社会影响的极端气候事件进行调查。这项活动具有重大而广泛的影响：了解气候变异性与决策之间的联系是影响世界各地区域和部门资源管理的根本问题。该项目将对农业领域对十年气候预测的反应进行综合分析--这是一个在全球粮食生产、粮食安全和能源生产中发挥核心作用的普遍的、真实世界的自然/人类系统。项目成果包括为寻求适应气候变化的决策者提供指导和最佳做法。与阿根廷科学家的合作将加强美国机构和研究人员以全球视野和视角参与气候和自然/人类系统综合科学的能力。气候信息生产者和决策者的积极参与将大大增加将研究成果纳入业务实践的可能性。

The multi-faceted aspects of climate variability and climate change affect a variety of societal sectors, regions and issues, including sustainable development, poverty mitigation and food security. Decision makers at many levels-households, communities, regions and countries-will increasingly need credible information that combines state-of-the-art climate science with an integrative understanding of the dynamics of affected natural/human systems. The overarching goal of this project is to enhance society's capacity to act on regional information, e.g. decadal predictions. In particular, the project seeks to facilitate adaptation to a shifting climate and inform resilient decision-making in agricultural production - a human activity that is critically vulnerable to climate. The geographic focus is the Pampas of central eastern Argentina, one of the main cereal and oilseed producing regions in the world.Well-informed adaptation to climate variability and change requires the capacity to 'translate' knowledge of decadal climate predictions into decision-relevant, sector-specific information and knowledge that is consistent with existing needs, procedures and decision protocols. To enhance the match between capabilities and expectations of decadal climate predictions, a sustained, iterative dialogue is implemented between climate scientists and multiple agricultural stakeholders. The goals of this dialogue are twofold: (i) to understand decision makers? information needs, beliefs, values and priorities, as well as the constraints under which they operate, and (ii) to provide useful feedback to the climate modeling community that will guide future model development and communication. As part of the project modern, rigorous statistical approaches will be applied to investigation of extreme climate events responsible for most societal impacts.This activity has significant broader impacts: understanding the link between climate variability and decision-making is a fundamental issue that affects resource management in regions and sectors throughout the world. The project will provide an integrated analysis of responses to decadal climate predictions in agriculture - a prevalent, real-world natural/human system that plays a central role in global food production, food security and energy production. Project outcomes include guidance and best practices for decision-makers seeking to adapt to climate variability. The collaboration with scientists in Argentina will strengthen the ability of U.S. institutions and investigators to engage in integrative climate and natural/human systems science with a global scope and perspective. The active involvement of climate information producers and decision-makers will enhance considerably the likelihood of research outputs being incorporated into operational practice.