Collaborative Research:Integration of Decadal Climate Predictions, Ecological and Human Decision-Making Models to Support Climate-Resilient Agriculture in the Argentine Pampas

气候变率和气候变化的多方面影响到各种社会部门、区域和问题，包括可持续发展、减轻贫困和粮食安全。家庭、社区、区域和国家等许多层面的决策者将越来越需要将最先进的气候科学与对受影响自然/人类系统动态的综合理解相结合的可靠信息。该项目的总体目标是提高社会根据区域信息（如十年预测）采取行动的能力。具体而言，该项目旨在促进对气候变化的适应，并为农业生产的弹性决策提供信息——农业生产是一项极易受到气候影响的人类活动。地理重点是阿根廷中东部的潘帕斯草原，这是世界上主要的谷物和油籽产区之一。在充分知情的情况下适应气候变率和变化，需要有能力将年代际气候预测的知识“转化”为与决策相关的、特定部门的信息和知识，这些信息和知识与现有的需求、程序和决策协议相一致。为了加强十年气候预测能力与预期之间的匹配，气候科学家与多个农业利益相关者之间开展了持续、反复的对话。这次对话的目标有两个：(i)了解决策者？信息需求、信念、价值观和优先事项，以及它们运行的约束条件，以及（ii）向气候模拟界提供有用的反馈，以指导未来模式的开发和交流。作为该项目的一部分，现代严谨的统计方法将应用于对造成大多数社会影响的极端气候事件的调查。这项活动具有重要的广泛影响：了解气候变率与决策之间的联系是影响世界各地区域和部门资源管理的一个基本问题。该项目将提供对农业十年气候预测响应的综合分析。农业是一个普遍存在的现实世界的自然/人类系统，在全球粮食生产、粮食安全和能源生产中发挥着核心作用。项目成果包括为寻求适应气候变化的决策者提供指导和最佳实践。与阿根廷科学家的合作将加强美国机构和研究人员以全球范围和视角从事综合气候和自然/人类系统科学的能力。气候信息生产者和决策者的积极参与将大大提高将研究成果纳入业务实践的可能性。

The multi-faceted aspects of climate variability and climate change affect a variety of societal sectors, regions and issues, including sustainable development, poverty mitigation and food security. Decision makers at many levels-households, communities, regions and countries-will increasingly need credible information that combines state-of-the-art climate science with an integrative understanding of the dynamics of affected natural/human systems. The overarching goal of this project is to enhance society's capacity to act on regional information, e.g. decadal predictions. In particular, the project seeks to facilitate adaptation to a shifting climate and inform resilient decision-making in agricultural production - a human activity that is critically vulnerable to climate. The geographic focus is the Pampas of central eastern Argentina, one of the main cereal and oilseed producing regions in the world.Well-informed adaptation to climate variability and change requires the capacity to 'translate' knowledge of decadal climate predictions into decision-relevant, sector-specific information and knowledge that is consistent with existing needs, procedures and decision protocols. To enhance the match between capabilities and expectations of decadal climate predictions, a sustained, iterative dialogue is implemented between climate scientists and multiple agricultural stakeholders. The goals of this dialogue are twofold: (i) to understand decision makers? information needs, beliefs, values and priorities, as well as the constraints under which they operate, and (ii) to provide useful feedback to the climate modeling community that will guide future model development and communication. As part of the project modern, rigorous statistical approaches will be applied to investigation of extreme climate events responsible for most societal impacts.This activity has significant broader impacts: understanding the link between climate variability and decision-making is a fundamental issue that affects resource management in regions and sectors throughout the world. The project will provide an integrated analysis of responses to decadal climate predictions in agriculture - a prevalent, real-world natural/human system that plays a central role in global food production, food security and energy production. Project outcomes include guidance and best practices for decision-makers seeking to adapt to climate variability. The collaboration with scientists in Argentina will strengthen the ability of U.S. institutions and investigators to engage in integrative climate and natural/human systems science with a global scope and perspective. The active involvement of climate information producers and decision-makers will enhance considerably the likelihood of research outputs being incorporated into operational practice.