EAGER: Perceiving Political Distributions

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The present research focuses on motivated political perceptions, especially as they relate to civic behavior and political behavior that is relevant to the United States 2012 elections. Unlike a great deal of past research on political attitudes, the proposed work focuses on intergroup forces and emotions (such as the anger that is fueled by real or anticipated partisan debates) as they relate to perceptions of the political attitudes of others. Importantly, the proposed research will challenge two well established empirical findings about perceptions of political attitude distributions. (1) Polarization projection: In contrast to the established idea that people project their own attitudes onto others, the proposal will test the hypothesis, derived from pilot data, that people also project their attitude extremity onto others -- such that people with more extreme political attitudes perceive more political polarization than do with people with less extreme political attitudes. This pattern can sometimes produce the opposite of simple projection. (2) Ingroup homogeneity: Past research shows that people perceive their own groups as more heterogeneous than outgroups ("They are all alike; we are unique."). However, this work will test the opposite hypothesis, that in partisan political domains, people perceive their own group's attitudes as more (not less) homogeneous than the "other side's" attitudes. ("We are united; they are divided.") The proposed research includes four lab experiments and a longitudinal national field experiment in the context of the 2012 elections. The field experiment will examine polarization projection and ingroup homogeneity at the level of broad ideology (along with specific political issues) as they develop over time, and will examine how these patterns influence civic actions such as voting. The proposed studies will yield at least three substantial benefits to society and to social scientists in social psychology, political science, business, law, sociology, and other areas. First, the research will make available to researchers a novel, user-friendly methodology for measuring perceived distributions that could be applied in many domains including probability, event frequency, and other, non-political attitudes. Second, the proposed studies will support a diverse research group that currently includes five PhD students and ten undergraduates, approximately half of whom are women. The proposed research will provide an important training component for these students. Finally, and critically, by fostering understanding of how people's attitudes and political identities influence their perceptions of others' political attitudes, this work can inform citizens and civic leaders about factors influencing civic behavior. Such an understanding of how people perceive political distributions would also enable policy makers to craft better and more informed policies that encourage and facilitate civic engagement.