CAREER: Flood Risk Projections with Climatic Variation and Human-Induced Shifts in Hydrologic Response

职业：气候变化和人为引起的水文响应变化的洪水风险预测

• 批准号: 1053655
• 负责人: Veronica Webster
• 金额: $ 40.09万
• 依托单位: Michigan Technological University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-05-01 至 2018-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1053655&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Flood; Risk; Projections; Climatic

A large portion of the U.S. population, infrastructure, and industry is located in flood prone areas; however, structural and nonstructural strategies [e.g., the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)] used to reduce the economic, social, and environmental impacts of floods continue to be based on static estimates of flood risk despite the documented influence of urbanization and climatic variation on flood peaks. Thus, the current challenge is to create a statistical framework to project future flood risk that accounts for natural climate variability, potential climate change, and impending land use changes. In view of this need, the objectives of this research are: to develop and test methods that extend traditional statistical flood risk models to project future flood risk, and to determine the relative impacts of climatic variation and anthropogenic activities on flood risk under future scenarios of climate change, land use, and emissions in the Northeastern United States. This study region was chosen because it includes a range of flood generating mechanisms, and connections between flood peaks and oceanic-atmospheric patterns have been identified therein. These research objectives will be achieved through a combination of observation-based statistical models that use extant data and physically-based hydrologic models that simulate flood series under future scenarios. The benefits to society from this project will flow from the creation of a physical-causal based statistical framework for flood risk projection. This framework, combined with knowledge of the relative impacts of climatic variation and anthropogenic activities on flood risk under future scenarios, will provide the groundwork for new advances in water resources management. The framework could be used to develop a stochastic NFIP, and would facilitate impact assessments, such as analysis of the implications associated with land use planning and management scenarios. In addition, this project will: increase K-12 student awareness to the consequences of human activities on hydrologic processes, increase K-12 student interest in science and engineering careers, and increase undergraduate student interest to pursue advanced science and engineering degrees. These outcomes will be accomplished through the integration of research and educational student experiences at high school, undergraduate, and graduate levels. In particular, field trips for area ninth grade students will be held throughout the duration of the project, an interactive web module and corresponding lesson plan will be developed for use beyond completion of this project, graduate and undergraduate students will participate in outreach activities, and research themes will be integrated into undergraduate water resources coursework. Special efforts toward recruiting and retaining women will be made through outreach activities and positive mentoring of summer undergraduate researchers.

美国人口、基础设施和工业的很大一部分位于洪水易发地区;然而，结构和非结构战略[例如，国家洪水保险计划（NFIP）]用于减少洪水的经济，社会和环境影响，继续基于洪水风险的静态估计，尽管记录了城市化和气候变化对洪峰的影响。因此，目前的挑战是建立一个统计框架，预测未来的洪水风险，说明自然气候变化，潜在的气候变化，即将发生的土地利用变化。鉴于这一需要，本研究的目标是：开发和测试方法，扩展传统的统计洪水风险模型，以预测未来的洪水风险，并确定气候变化和人类活动对洪水风险的相对影响下，未来的气候变化，土地利用和排放在美国东北部。之所以选择这一研究区域，是因为它包括一系列洪水生成机制，并在其中确定了洪峰和海洋-大气模式之间的联系。这些研究目标将通过结合基于观测的统计模型来实现，这些模型使用现有数据和基于物理的水文模型来模拟未来情景下的洪水系列。该项目对社会的好处将来自于为洪水风险预测创建一个基于物理因果关系的统计框架。这一框架，结合气候变化和人类活动对未来情景下洪水风险的相对影响的知识，将为水资源管理的新进展奠定基础。该框架可用于制定一个随机的NFIP，并将促进影响评估，如分析与土地使用规划和管理情景相关的影响。此外，该项目还将：提高K-12学生对人类活动对水文过程影响的认识，提高K-12学生对科学和工程职业的兴趣，并提高本科生攻读高级科学和工程学位的兴趣。 这些成果将通过在高中，本科和研究生水平的研究和教育的学生经验的整合来实现。特别是，实地考察地区九年级学生将在整个项目期间举行，一个互动的网络模块和相应的课程计划将开发用于本项目完成后，研究生和本科生将参加推广活动，研究主题将被纳入本科水资源课程。将通过外联活动和对暑期本科研究人员的积极指导，特别努力招募和留住妇女。