CAREER: Flood Risk Projections with Climatic Variation and Human-Induced Shifts in Hydrologic Response

美国很大一部分人口、基础设施和工业都位于洪水易发地区；然而，用于减少洪水对经济、社会和环境影响的结构性和非结构性策略[例如，国家洪水保险计划（NFIP）]仍然是基于对洪水风险的静态估计，尽管城市化和气候变化对洪水峰值有记录影响。因此，当前的挑战是创建一个统计框架来预测未来的洪水风险，该框架考虑了自然气候变化、潜在气候变化和即将发生的土地利用变化。鉴于这一需求，本研究的目标是：开发和测试将传统的统计洪水风险模型扩展到预测未来洪水风险的方法，并确定未来气候变化、土地利用和排放情景下气候变化和人为活动对美国东北部洪水风险的相对影响。之所以选择这一研究区域，是因为它包括一系列洪水产生机制，并且在其中已经确定了洪水峰值与海洋-大气模式之间的联系。这些研究目标将通过结合使用现有数据的基于观测的统计模型和模拟未来情景下洪水系列的基于物理的水文模型来实现。这个项目对社会的好处将来自于为洪水风险预测创建一个基于物理因果关系的统计框架。这一框架，加上对未来情景下气候变化和人为活动对洪水风险的相对影响的认识，将为水资源管理的新进展奠定基础。该框架可用于制定随机的国家综合规划，并将促进影响评估，例如分析与土地使用规划和管理情景有关的影响。此外，该项目将：提高K-12学生对人类活动对水文过程的影响的认识，提高K-12学生对科学和工程职业的兴趣，提高本科生追求高级科学和工程学位的兴趣。这些成果将通过在高中、本科和研究生阶段的研究和教育学生经验的整合来实现。特别是，九年级学生将在整个项目期间进行实地考察，交互式网络模块和相应的课程计划将被开发出来供项目完成后使用，研究生和本科生将参与外展活动，研究主题将融入本科生的水资源课程。将通过外展活动和对夏季本科生研究人员的积极指导，为征聘和留住妇女作出特别努力。

A large portion of the U.S. population, infrastructure, and industry is located in flood prone areas; however, structural and nonstructural strategies [e.g., the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)] used to reduce the economic, social, and environmental impacts of floods continue to be based on static estimates of flood risk despite the documented influence of urbanization and climatic variation on flood peaks. Thus, the current challenge is to create a statistical framework to project future flood risk that accounts for natural climate variability, potential climate change, and impending land use changes. In view of this need, the objectives of this research are: to develop and test methods that extend traditional statistical flood risk models to project future flood risk, and to determine the relative impacts of climatic variation and anthropogenic activities on flood risk under future scenarios of climate change, land use, and emissions in the Northeastern United States. This study region was chosen because it includes a range of flood generating mechanisms, and connections between flood peaks and oceanic-atmospheric patterns have been identified therein. These research objectives will be achieved through a combination of observation-based statistical models that use extant data and physically-based hydrologic models that simulate flood series under future scenarios. The benefits to society from this project will flow from the creation of a physical-causal based statistical framework for flood risk projection. This framework, combined with knowledge of the relative impacts of climatic variation and anthropogenic activities on flood risk under future scenarios, will provide the groundwork for new advances in water resources management. The framework could be used to develop a stochastic NFIP, and would facilitate impact assessments, such as analysis of the implications associated with land use planning and management scenarios. In addition, this project will: increase K-12 student awareness to the consequences of human activities on hydrologic processes, increase K-12 student interest in science and engineering careers, and increase undergraduate student interest to pursue advanced science and engineering degrees. These outcomes will be accomplished through the integration of research and educational student experiences at high school, undergraduate, and graduate levels. In particular, field trips for area ninth grade students will be held throughout the duration of the project, an interactive web module and corresponding lesson plan will be developed for use beyond completion of this project, graduate and undergraduate students will participate in outreach activities, and research themes will be integrated into undergraduate water resources coursework. Special efforts toward recruiting and retaining women will be made through outreach activities and positive mentoring of summer undergraduate researchers.