CAREER: Forecasting Climate Change Impacts on Plant Communities? When Do Species Interactions Matter?

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The impact of climate change on an individual species depends both on how that species responds directly to alterations in precipitation and temperature, and on how its predators or competitors are affected by the change in climate. While scientists have documented examples of these species interactions overwhelming the direct effects of altered climate variables, it remains impossible to predict how common such situations may be or when and where they will occur. The proposed research combines long-term observational data, mathematical models, and field experiments to test general predictions about how, when and where species interactions will mediate the ecological impacts of climate change and variability.The results of this research may be of value to government land managers, who are under increasing pressure to consider climate change impacts in land-use planning. However, managers lack practical access to relevant scientific information. Therefore, the research will be complemented by an education program to improve communication between researchers and land managers. A series of coordinated graduate seminars at multiple universities will bring faculty, students and agency personnel together to synthesize existing climate change science in the Intermountain West. The seminars will build new relationships between researchers and managers and the resulting summary reports will inform decision-making.