CAREER: Uncertainty Propagation and Data Assimilation for Toxic Cloud Prediction

该学院早期职业发展(CALEAR)奖专注于开发数学工具，用于准确描述和传播数学模型中的不确定性，并将模型输出与稀疏、噪声数据相融合，以确定对实际物理现象的估计和对这些估计的统计可信度测量。这一职业奖的主要目标有两个：(I)了解输入变量的不确定性和风的随机强迫如何影响扩散模式的输出，以及(Ii)提供有毒云团移动的预测，以及对该预测的信心的量化测量。有毒云团扩散的不确定性分析正在成为及时和准确评估自然或人为事故(如切尔诺贝利事故或艾雅法拉火山事故)威胁的最重要组成部分之一。由于有毒物质的释放，响应组织和行业根据对云运动的预测做出决策，而对这些预测的可靠性知之甚少。在涉及大量资源的情况下，当预测被用来为政策制定或缓解解决方案提供信息时，对不确定性的定量理解是至关重要的。例如，对模型预测中的不确定性的理解，可以在接受在有毒物质释放的情况下腾出城市的必要性方面发挥关键作用，在这种情况下，不同选择的成本不同，可能会有数百万美元和生命的差异。如果成功，这项研究工作将为评估空间和时间上的危险风险提供手段。一个重要的实际成果将是能够生成有毒物质危险地图。该职业项目还将教育推广工作纳入研究计划，目的是增加与校园现有项目相关的科学和工程少数群体学生的多样性和人数。此外，PI将设计一个“自助”辅导网站，向学生和研究人员提供有关非线性滤波和不确定性表征概念的信息和教育。作为计划的一部分，已完成的研究和教育成就将在期刊出版物和会议演示文稿中介绍。

This Faculty Early Career Development (CAREER) award focuses on developing mathematical tools for accurate characterization and propagation of uncertainty in mathematical models, and fusion of model output with sparse, noisy data to determine estimates of the actual physical phenomenon and statistical measure of confidence in those estimates. The principal goals of this CAREER award are twofold: (i) to understand how the uncertainty of input variables and the random forcing of winds affect the output of the dispersion model, and (ii) to provide a prediction of toxic cloud movement, together with quantitative measures of confidence in that prediction. Uncertainty analysis of dispersion of toxic clouds is becoming one of the most important components for timely and accurate threat assessment from natural or man-made incidents (such as Chernobyl or Eyjafjallajökull incidents). Consequent to the toxic material release, response organizations and industries make decisions based on predictions of the cloud motion, with little knowledge or appreciation of the reliability of those predictions. The quantitative understanding of uncertainty is essential when predictions are to be used to inform policy making or mitigation solutions where significant resources are at stake. For example, an understanding of uncertainty in model predictions can play an essential role in the acceptance of the need to vacate a city in case of toxic material release where the cost of different choices varies by millions of dollars and human lives. If successful, this research work will provide means for evaluating hazard risks in space and time. An important practical outcome will be the ability to generate toxic material hazard maps. This CAREER project also integrates educational outreach efforts into the research plan with the goal to increase the diversity and the number of students from minority groups in science and engineering in association with existing programs on campus. In addition, the PI will design a ``Self-Help'' tutorial web-site to inform and educate both students and researchers about nonlinear filtering and uncertainty characterization concepts. Research and education accomplishments completed, as part of the plan will be described in journal publications, and conference presentations.