CAREER: Uncertainty Propagation and Data Assimilation for Toxic Cloud Prediction

该学院早期职业发展（Career）奖侧重于开发数学工具，以准确表征和传播数学模型中的不确定性，并将模型输出与稀疏、嘈杂的数据融合，以确定对实际物理现象的估计和对这些估计的置信度的统计度量。CAREER奖的主要目标有两个：(i)了解输入变量的不确定性和风的随机强迫如何影响扩散模型的输出，以及（ii）提供有毒云运动的预测，以及对该预测的信心的定量测量。有毒云扩散的不确定性分析正在成为及时和准确评估自然或人为事件（如切尔诺贝利或Eyjafjallajökull事件）威胁的最重要组成部分之一。由于有毒物质的释放，响应组织和行业根据对云运动的预测做出决策，对这些预测的可靠性知之甚少或不了解。当要利用预测为涉及大量资源的决策或缓解办法提供信息时，对不确定性的定量理解至关重要。例如，对模型预测中的不确定性的理解可以在接受需要在有毒物质释放的情况下撤离城市方面发挥重要作用，其中不同选择的成本因数百万美元和人命而异。如果成功，这项研究工作将为评估空间和时间上的危害风险提供手段。一个重要的实际成果将是生成有毒物质危害图的能力。CAREER项目还将教育推广工作整合到研究计划中，目标是增加科学和工程领域少数族裔学生的多样性和数量，并与校园现有项目相结合。此外，PI将设计一个“自助”教程网站，告知和教育学生和研究人员有关非线性滤波和不确定性表征的概念。作为计划的一部分，完成的研究和教育成就将在期刊出版物和会议报告中描述。

This Faculty Early Career Development (CAREER) award focuses on developing mathematical tools for accurate characterization and propagation of uncertainty in mathematical models, and fusion of model output with sparse, noisy data to determine estimates of the actual physical phenomenon and statistical measure of confidence in those estimates. The principal goals of this CAREER award are twofold: (i) to understand how the uncertainty of input variables and the random forcing of winds affect the output of the dispersion model, and (ii) to provide a prediction of toxic cloud movement, together with quantitative measures of confidence in that prediction. Uncertainty analysis of dispersion of toxic clouds is becoming one of the most important components for timely and accurate threat assessment from natural or man-made incidents (such as Chernobyl or Eyjafjallajökull incidents). Consequent to the toxic material release, response organizations and industries make decisions based on predictions of the cloud motion, with little knowledge or appreciation of the reliability of those predictions. The quantitative understanding of uncertainty is essential when predictions are to be used to inform policy making or mitigation solutions where significant resources are at stake. For example, an understanding of uncertainty in model predictions can play an essential role in the acceptance of the need to vacate a city in case of toxic material release where the cost of different choices varies by millions of dollars and human lives. If successful, this research work will provide means for evaluating hazard risks in space and time. An important practical outcome will be the ability to generate toxic material hazard maps. This CAREER project also integrates educational outreach efforts into the research plan with the goal to increase the diversity and the number of students from minority groups in science and engineering in association with existing programs on campus. In addition, the PI will design a ``Self-Help'' tutorial web-site to inform and educate both students and researchers about nonlinear filtering and uncertainty characterization concepts. Research and education accomplishments completed, as part of the plan will be described in journal publications, and conference presentations.