Integrating Air Pollution Prediction Models: Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Health Studies

项目摘要 环境空气污染是一个全球性的环境威胁，导致数百万人死亡，数百人死亡。 残疾调整生命年（DIFFERENTIAL）。然而，空气污染对健康的主要限制 研究仍然是暴露评估。虽然空气污染评估已经取得了很大的进展， 此外，亦有数个先进的时空模式，可预测 研究参与者的居住地址，这些模型的性能在空间和时间上各不相同。 然而，即使是平均表现最好的预测模型，在某些情况下也会具有有限的预测能力。 空间和时间点。此外，与使用单一预测模型相关的不确定性已被 在健康研究中一直被忽视，这可能导致对健康影响估计的无效推断， 研究结果不一致。我们建议通过开发一种新的合奏来解决这一关键差距 空气污染健康研究中暴露评估的模型框架， 多个现有的预测模型。通过这种方法，我们将首次能够全面地 量化与环境空气污染暴露相关的任何模型间和模型内的不确定性。我们将开发 单一和多污染物环境的综合方法。我们建议应用开发的方法 并利用两个全国性开放队列充分传播健康效应估计中的暴露不确定性，主要 Medicare和Medicaid，以及纽约州（全州范围内）的开放式入院队列 规划和研究合作系统（SPARCS）。这些数据集提供了关于大约 美国各地的所有老年人、低收入者和残疾人（医疗保险和医疗补助， 分别），与住宅信息的邮政编码水平，以及98%的所有住院在纽约州， 并提供居住地址的信息。具体而言，我们将评估长期和短期影响 空气污染暴露对死亡率（医疗保险和医疗补助）和心肺疾病发病率（所有三个 我们传达空气污染预测，空气污染暴露的时空不确定性， 向公众和监管机构提供评估和相关的健康影响估计。拟议中的小说 在健康研究中评估空气污染暴露的范例将大大改善暴露的交流 对决策者和公众的健康影响估计的不确定性， NIH的优先研究领域。我们的工具可以很容易地扩展，并将有利于信息和 在不同地点和全球范围内以及在其他环境 暴露。

Project Summary Ambient air pollution is a global environmental threat, contributing to millions of deaths and hundreds of millions of disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) annually. However, the major limitation of air pollution health studies remains exposure assessment. Although there have been great advances in air pollution assessment and several sophisticated spatio-temporal models have been developed to predict daily air pollution levels at the residential addresses of study participants, the performance of these models varies in space and time. Even the best on average performing prediction model, however, will have limited predictive ability in certain space and time points. Furthermore, the uncertainty associated with use of a single prediction model has been consistently ignored in health studies, which could lead to invalid inferences of the health effect estimates, and inconsistent findings across studies. We propose to address this critical gap by developing a novel ensemble model framework for exposure assessment in air pollution health studies, integrating information across multiple existing prediction models. With this approach, we will for the first time be able to comprehensively quantify any inter- and intra-model uncertainty associated with ambient air pollution exposures. We will develop ensemble methods both for single- and multi-pollutant settings. We propose to apply the developed methods and fully propagate exposure uncertainty in health effect estimation using two nationwide open cohorts, mainly Medicare and Medicaid, as well as an open cohort of hospital admissions in New York State (Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System, SPARCS). These datasets provide information on approximately all elderly, low-income and disabled Americans across the United States (Medicare and Medicaid, respectively), with residential information the zip-code level, as well as 98% of all hospitalizations in NY State, with information available at the residential address. Specifically we will assess the long- and short-term impact of air pollution exposure on mortality (Medicare and Medicaid), and cardiorespiratory morbidity (all three cohorts).We communicate the air pollution predictions, the spatio-temporal uncertainty of air pollution exposure assessment and related health effect estimates to the public and regulatory agencies. The proposed novel paradigm to assess air pollution exposures in health studies will greatly improve communication of exposure uncertainty in the health effect estimates both to policy makers and the public, exactly responding to one of NIH's priority research areas. Our tools can be easily extended and will benefit integration of information and uncertainty characterization at different locations and at a global scale, as well as for other environmental exposures.