RAPID Proposal: Merging Monsoon, Snowmelt and Post-flood Ground Information for a Multivariate Estimation and Prediction of Flood Risk for the Indus River, Pakistan

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The Indus River system is fed by melting of snow and glaciers and by monsoon rainfall, and both have the potential to produce catastrophic flooding. The intensity of the present flood clearly exceeded previous probabilistic estimates: river-bank protections and dam spillway were typically designed to withstand smaller discharges. This project will combine statistical analysis of rainfall, streamflow, temperature and meteorological maps with projections of Global Circulation Models to provide a reliable estimate of the typical average recurrence time of such types of events for the Indus River basin at different locations. Relevant data will be collected and organized. There is especial urgency with regard to gathering information on the flooded areas to verify the flood water levels and volumes, as well as to define (or redefine) flood risk areas. From a scientific point of view it is important to understand whether these events may become more likely with climate change. The Indus River, one of the world?s largest irrigation networks, faces both serious scarcity of water in one season and disastrous floods in another. In late July-early Aug 2010, the worst floods in Pakistan's history killed more than 1,600 people and directly affected more than 20 million more. The destruction to the farming-industry, including harvest, and the incumbent epidemics resulted in an incommensurable socio-economic crisis for the country. Thus improved risk estimates and flood prediction at the basin scale are fundamental to achieve more sustainable and secure use of water resources, and to issue flood warning as well as to guide proper design of protection and hydraulic works. Improved understanding of complex river flow dynamics leading to such disasters will also be instrumental for other areas of the world (in particular, in the US for the South West, California, and the Northwest), where timing of snowmelt and precipitation are key for water resources management and flood protection. From an educational viewpoint, the results of the project will be presented in first-year engineering, policy and environmental courses at Duke University. Finally, the collaboration between Pakistan and US is valuable from a social point of view because it fosters development of hydrological sciences and engineering. This project is co-funded by the Division of Earth Sciences and the Office of International Science and Engineering.