RAPID Proposal: Merging Monsoon, Snowmelt and Post-flood Ground Information for a Multivariate Estimation and Prediction of Flood Risk for the Indus River, Pakistan

RAPID 提案:合并季风、融雪和洪水后地面信息,对巴基斯坦印度河洪水风险进行多元估计和预测

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    1063717
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 4.53万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2011
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2011-02-01 至 2012-01-31
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

The Indus River system is fed by melting of snow and glaciers and by monsoon rainfall, and both have the potential to produce catastrophic flooding. The intensity of the present flood clearly exceeded previous probabilistic estimates: river-bank protections and dam spillway were typically designed to withstand smaller discharges. This project will combine statistical analysis of rainfall, streamflow, temperature and meteorological maps with projections of Global Circulation Models to provide a reliable estimate of the typical average recurrence time of such types of events for the Indus River basin at different locations. Relevant data will be collected and organized. There is especial urgency with regard to gathering information on the flooded areas to verify the flood water levels and volumes, as well as to define (or redefine) flood risk areas. From a scientific point of view it is important to understand whether these events may become more likely with climate change. The Indus River, one of the world?s largest irrigation networks, faces both serious scarcity of water in one season and disastrous floods in another. In late July-early Aug 2010, the worst floods in Pakistan's history killed more than 1,600 people and directly affected more than 20 million more. The destruction to the farming-industry, including harvest, and the incumbent epidemics resulted in an incommensurable socio-economic crisis for the country. Thus improved risk estimates and flood prediction at the basin scale are fundamental to achieve more sustainable and secure use of water resources, and to issue flood warning as well as to guide proper design of protection and hydraulic works. Improved understanding of complex river flow dynamics leading to such disasters will also be instrumental for other areas of the world (in particular, in the US for the South West, California, and the Northwest), where timing of snowmelt and precipitation are key for water resources management and flood protection. From an educational viewpoint, the results of the project will be presented in first-year engineering, policy and environmental courses at Duke University. Finally, the collaboration between Pakistan and US is valuable from a social point of view because it fosters development of hydrological sciences and engineering. This project is co-funded by the Division of Earth Sciences and the Office of International Science and Engineering.
印度河流域的水来自冰雪融化和季风降雨,两者都有可能造成灾难性的洪水。目前洪水的强度显然超过了以前的概率估计:河岸保护和大坝溢洪道的设计通常是为了承受较小的流量。该项目将把对降雨、径流、温度和气象图的联合收割机统计分析与全球环流模式的预测结合起来,对印度河流域不同地点这类事件的典型平均重现时间提供可靠的估计。将收集和整理相关数据。特别迫切需要收集有关洪水泛滥地区的信息,以核实洪水水位和水量,并确定(或重新确定)洪水风险区。从科学的角度来看,重要的是要了解这些事件是否会随着气候变化而变得更有可能。印度河,世界之一?世界上最大的灌溉网络,在一个季节面临严重的缺水,在另一个季节面临灾难性的洪水。2010年7月底至8月初,巴基斯坦历史上最严重的洪水造成1 600多人死亡,2 000多万人受到直接影响。农业,包括收成的破坏,以及流行病的肆虐,给该国造成了无法避免的社会经济危机。 因此,在流域尺度上改进风险估计和洪水预测对于实现更可持续和安全地利用水资源、发布洪水警报以及指导保护和水利工程的适当设计至关重要。提高对导致此类灾害的复杂河流动力学的理解也将有助于世界其他地区(特别是美国西南部、加州和西北部),在这些地区,融雪和降水的时间是水资源管理和防洪的关键。从教育的角度来看,该项目的成果将在杜克大学一年级的工程、政策和环境课程中介绍。最后,巴基斯坦和美国之间的合作从社会角度来看是有价值的,因为它促进了水文科学和工程的发展。该项目由地球科学司和国际科学和工程处共同资助。

项目成果

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Amilcare Porporato其他文献

Radiative effects of daily cycle of cloud frequency in past and future climates
  • DOI:
    10.1007/s00382-019-05077-5
  • 发表时间:
    2019-12-11
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.700
  • 作者:
    Jun Yin;Amilcare Porporato
  • 通讯作者:
    Amilcare Porporato
Correction to: Ecohydrological model for the quantification of ecosystem services provided by urban street trees
  • DOI:
    10.1007/s11252-018-0785-3
  • 发表时间:
    2018-07-31
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    2.400
  • 作者:
    Roberto Revelli;Amilcare Porporato
  • 通讯作者:
    Amilcare Porporato
Deterministic engines extending Helmholtz thermodynamics
  • DOI:
    10.1016/j.physa.2024.129700
  • 发表时间:
    2024-04-15
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
  • 作者:
    Amilcare Porporato;Lamberto Rondoni
  • 通讯作者:
    Lamberto Rondoni
Water pulses and biogeochemical cycles in arid and semiarid ecosystems
  • DOI:
    10.1007/s00442-004-1519-1
  • 发表时间:
    2004-02-24
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    2.300
  • 作者:
    Amy T. Austin;Laura Yahdjian;John M. Stark;Jayne Belnap;Amilcare Porporato;Urszula Norton;Damián A. Ravetta;Sean M. Schaeffer
  • 通讯作者:
    Sean M. Schaeffer
Tree Water Status and Soil Moisture Dynamics in Picea crassifolia Forest, Qilian Mountains, China. Advances in Water Resources
中国祁连山青叶云杉林树体水分状况和土壤水分动态。
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    4.7
  • 作者:
    Amilcare Porporato;Zhao, Wenzhi;Liu, Hu
  • 通讯作者:
    Liu, Hu

Amilcare Porporato的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Amilcare Porporato', 18)}}的其他基金

Local and nonlocal topographic controls on landscape ecohydrology
当地和非当地地形对景观生态水文学的控制
  • 批准号:
    1763284
  • 财政年份:
    2017
  • 资助金额:
    $ 4.53万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
A US-Africa workshop for a science and research vision on the food-water-energy (FEW) nexus
美国-非洲研讨会,探讨食品-水-能源 (FEW) 关系的科学研究愿景
  • 批准号:
    1628011
  • 财政年份:
    2016
  • 资助金额:
    $ 4.53万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Local and nonlocal topographic controls on landscape ecohydrology
当地和非当地地形对景观生态水文学的控制
  • 批准号:
    1316258
  • 财政年份:
    2013
  • 资助金额:
    $ 4.53万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Controls over C sequestration: physiology vs. physics
合作研究:碳封存的控制:生理学与物理学
  • 批准号:
    1145649
  • 财政年份:
    2012
  • 资助金额:
    $ 4.53万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
IGERT: Training Program in Wireless Intelligent Sensor Networks (WISeNet)
IGERT:无线智能传感器网络 (WISeNet) 培训计划
  • 批准号:
    1068871
  • 财政年份:
    2011
  • 资助金额:
    $ 4.53万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
Sustainable use of water and soils in seasonally-dry regions: exploring the continuum between natural and intensively-managed ecosystems
季节性干旱地区水和土壤的可持续利用:探索自然生态系统和集约管理生态系统之间的连续性
  • 批准号:
    1033467
  • 财政年份:
    2010
  • 资助金额:
    $ 4.53万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant

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