Collaborative Research: Tropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate: Lessons from Model Simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene

合作研究：气候变暖中的热带气旋：末次盛冰期和全新世模型模拟的教训

• 批准号: 1064081
• 负责人: Suzana Camargo
• 金额: $ 17.15万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-04-15 至 2015-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1064081&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Tropical; Cyclones; Warming

This collaborative project uses numerical simulations to study the likely behavior of tropical cyclones (TCs, which include Atlantic hurricanes, Pacific typhoons, and cycones in the Indian Ocean), at the height of the last ice age (about 21,000 years ago) and during the mid-holocene warm period of about 6,000 years ago. Much attention has been devoted to understanding the impact on TCs of the warming of the world's oceans over recent decades and the likely response of TCs to future global warming. This study seeks to further understanding of the impact of climate change on TCs by looking backward to past climates which are comparably different from today's climate, although in different ways. Four specific questions are addressed: 1) How do the factors that influence tropical cyclone genesis vary under LGM and mid-holocene forcings? 2) Are there significant variations in how different models resolve these large-scale factors? Which changes appear attributable to model variability and which to variations in external forcing? 3) How do the TC-like vortices found in climate models change in LGM and mid-holocene simulations when compared to preindustrial or present-day conditions? 4) How does a higher resolution, regional model's simulation of a paleoclimate environment handle genesis? How do storm counts and track densities vary as the climate forcing changes? The research is based on preliminary results which find evidence that the climate of the last ice age may have been relatively favorable for TC development in some regions, despite the generally colder sea surface temperatures worldwide. The work has broader impacts in the scientific community as it will inform research into the emerging science of "paleotempestology", the interdisciplinary study of the behavior of TCs and other storms in past climates. The work will also inform efforts to understand the impact of global warming on landfalling TCs including hurricanes along the US coastline. In addition, the work will fund and train a graduate student and a postdoctoral researchers, thereby providing support and training for the next generation of scientists.

该合作项目利用数值模拟来研究热带气旋（TC，包括大西洋飓风、太平洋台风和印度洋气旋）在最后一个冰河时期（约 21,000 年前）高峰期和约 6,000 年前全新世中期温暖期的可能行为。人们非常关注近几十年来世界海洋变暖对热带气旋的影响以及热带气旋对未来全球变暖的可能反应。本研究旨在通过回顾过去的气候来进一步了解气候变化对热带气旋的影响，过去的气候与当今的气候虽然方式不同，但相当不同。解决了四个具体问题：1）影响热带气旋生成的因素在末次盛宴和全新世中期强迫下如何变化？ 2）不同模型解决这些大规模因素的方式是否存在显着差异？哪些变化似乎归因于模型变异性，哪些变化归因于外部强迫的变化？ 3）与工业化前或当今的条件相比，在末次盛世和全新世中期模拟中，气候模型中发现的类TC涡旋有何变化？ 4）更高分辨率的古气候环境区域模型模拟如何处理成因？随着气候强迫的变化，风暴数量和路径密度如何变化？这项研究基于初步结果，发现证据表明，尽管全球海面温度普遍较低，但上一个冰河时代的气候可能相对有利于某些地区的热带气旋发展。这项工作在科学界具有更广泛的影响，因为它将为新兴科学“古风暴学”的研究提供信息，“古风暴学”是对过去气候中热带气旋和其他风暴行为的跨学科研究。这项工作还将为了解全球变暖对登陆的热带气旋（包括美国海岸线飓风）的影响提供信息。此外，该工作还将资助和培训一名研究生和一名博士后研究人员，从而为下一代科学家提供支持和培训。