Understanding the Connection Between Tropical Cyclones and Climate Through Multi-Model Simulations

通过多模型模拟了解热带气旋与气候之间的联系

• 批准号: 1143959
• 负责人: Suzana Camargo
• 金额: $ 69.96万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-01-01 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1143959&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Understanding; Connection; Between; Tropical; Cyclones

The main objectives of this project are as follows (i) to improve the understanding of natural variability and trends in tropical cyclone (TC) activity since the beginning of the 20th century; (ii) to quantify projected changes in the characteristics of tropical cyclones under a warming climate. The multi-model dataset generated by the recently established U.S. Climate Predictability and Variability program working group on hurricanes and climate, will be analyzed. The common set of diagnostics will include cyclone tracks and intensities, analysis of key tropical TC statistics, analysis of environmental conditions associated with TC genesis and intensification in the models. The work aims at better understanding of the relationship between TC in the present, as well as more robust and quantitative projects of TC activity in the future, based on the analysis of a unique high-resolution multi-model dataset. This data set will advance the understanding of the relationship between climate and TC; in addition international and national collaboration will be enhances as a result of interactions between several modeling groups. It will promote training through mentoring of post-doctoral scientists as well through outreach activities in the New York area.

该项目的主要目的是（i）提高对自20世纪初以来热带旋风（TC）活动的自然变异性和趋势的理解； （ii）量化在温暖气候下热带气旋特征的预测变化。将分析最近建立的美国气候可预测性和可变性计划工作组在飓风和气候上生成的多模型数据集。共同的诊断集将包括旋风轨道和强度，对热带TC统计数据的分析，与TC Genesis相关的环境条件分析以及模型中的强化。这项工作旨在更好地理解目前的TC之间的关系，以及将来对TC活动的更健壮和定量项目，基于对独特的高分辨率多模型数据集的分析。该数据集将提高人们对气候与TC之间关系的理解。此外，由于几个建模小组之间的互动，国际和国家合作将得到增强。它将通过纽约地区的外展活动来促进培训，并通过指导博士后科学家进行培训。