Understanding the Connection Between Tropical Cyclones and Climate Through Multi-Model Simulations

通过多模型模拟了解热带气旋与气候之间的联系

• 批准号: 1143959
• 负责人: Suzana Camargo
• 金额: $ 69.96万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-01-01 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1143959&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Understanding; Connection; Between; Tropical; Cyclones

The main objectives of this project are as follows (i) to improve the understanding of natural variability and trends in tropical cyclone (TC) activity since the beginning of the 20th century; (ii) to quantify projected changes in the characteristics of tropical cyclones under a warming climate. The multi-model dataset generated by the recently established U.S. Climate Predictability and Variability program working group on hurricanes and climate, will be analyzed. The common set of diagnostics will include cyclone tracks and intensities, analysis of key tropical TC statistics, analysis of environmental conditions associated with TC genesis and intensification in the models. The work aims at better understanding of the relationship between TC in the present, as well as more robust and quantitative projects of TC activity in the future, based on the analysis of a unique high-resolution multi-model dataset. This data set will advance the understanding of the relationship between climate and TC; in addition international and national collaboration will be enhances as a result of interactions between several modeling groups. It will promote training through mentoring of post-doctoral scientists as well through outreach activities in the New York area.

该项目的主要目标如下：(i)提高对20世纪初以来热带气旋活动的自然变率和趋势的认识；（ii）量化气候变暖下热带气旋特征的预估变化。将分析由最近成立的美国气候可预测性和变率计划飓风和气候工作组生成的多模式数据集。共同的诊断方法将包括气旋路径和强度、热带热带气旋关键统计数据分析、与模式中热带气旋发生和增强相关的环境条件分析。这项工作旨在更好地理解当前TC之间的关系，以及基于独特的高分辨率多模型数据集的未来更可靠和定量的TC活动项目。该数据集将促进对气候与温度之间关系的理解；此外，由于几个建模小组之间的相互作用，国际和国家合作将得到加强。它将通过指导博士后科学家以及在纽约地区开展外联活动来促进培训。