Collaborative Research: The Relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diversity and Tropical Cyclones in a Hierarchy of Models

合作研究：模型层次结构中厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 (ENSO) 多样性与热带气旋之间的关系

• 批准号: 2043142
• 负责人: Suzana Camargo
• 金额: $ 22.74万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-03-15 至 2025-02-28
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2043142&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Relationship; between; El

Hurricanes are the most devastating natural disasters facing many coastal communities in the US and around the world. Since these storms, also called tropical cyclones (TCs), develop in warm air over warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), it is natural to ask wether they will pose a greater threat as the world warms. Basic thermodynamics implies that the strongest hurricanes in a cooler climate are weaker than their counterparts in warmer climates, and this strengthening with warming has now been detected in the observed record. But the strengthening of the strongest storms may be just one of a number of changes in TC activity that result from warming. One question here is how TC activity will be influenced by the pattern of ocean surface warming, as observations and simulations both show an uneven pattern of tropical ocean warming accompanying greenhouse gas increases. Some clues to how the regional distribution of SST increases is likely to affect TC activity can be found in El Nino events(also called El Nino/Southern Oscillation events, or ENSOs), in which the equatorial Pacific warms between the west coast of South America and the dateline. Prior work by the Principal Investigators (PIs) and others shows that the influence of El Nino events on TCs is different depending on whether the El Nino-induced warming is greatest in the central or eastern equatorial Pacific. In particular they found that all El Nino events can suppress TCs in the Atlantic, but the central Pacific "flavor" of El Nino is substantially more effective at Atlantic TC suppression. The El Nino-TC connection can thus serve to guide expectations as to how the regional pattern of future SST warming might affect TC activity. It may also have direct implications if future warming affects either the frequency and intensity of El Nino events or the relative occurrence of the central and eastern Pacific flavors.Work performed under this award examines the El Nino-TC relationship and its implications for climate change using a combination of climate model simulations, machine learning techniques, and hybrid dynamical-statistical models. One goal of the project is to develop "emergent constraints" that connect the El Nino-TC relationship found in climate models to the relationship found in the observed record. If models show a strong connection between the El Nino-TC relationship in present-day climate and future TC change, then future TC change projections from models which correctly simulate the present-day El Nino-TC relationship are more credible. The physical mechanisms through which El Nino events influence TC activity are also explored.The work has societal value given the risks posed by TCs for coastal communities and the value of guidance as to how that risk might change in the future. The project also builds a research network spanning three institutions from the eastern seabord to Hawaii. In addition to its scientific value the network helps to overcome the geographical isolation of the University of Hawaii, a minority-serving institution. The project also supports a graduate student in Columbia University's Bridge to the PhD program, which helps college graduates from underrepresented groups with the transition to graduate school. Finally, the PIs are developing an online class titled "Machine learning applications across weather and climate" which will take advantage of tools and results from the project.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

飓风是美国和世界各地许多沿海社区面临的最具破坏性的自然灾害。由于这些风暴，也被称为热带气旋（TCs），在温暖的空气中形成，在温暖的海面温度（SSTs）上，人们自然会问，随着世界变暖，它们是否会构成更大的威胁。基本的热力学表明，在较冷的气候中最强的飓风比在较暖的气候中最强的飓风弱，这种随着变暖而增强的现象已经在观测记录中被发现。但最强风暴的增强可能只是变暖导致的TC活动的众多变化之一。这里的一个问题是，海洋表面变暖的模式将如何影响TC活动，因为观测和模拟都显示了热带海洋变暖伴随温室气体增加的不均匀模式。在厄尔尼诺事件（也称为厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件，或ENSOs）中，可以找到一些关于海温增加的区域分布如何可能影响TC活动的线索。在厄尔尼诺事件中，赤道太平洋在南美洲西海岸和日期变更线之间变暖。主要研究人员（pi）和其他人先前的工作表明，厄尔尼诺事件对tc的影响是不同的，这取决于厄尔尼诺引起的变暖是在赤道太平洋中部还是东部最大。他们特别发现，所有的厄尔尼诺事件都可以抑制大西洋的TC，但厄尔尼诺的中太平洋“味道”实质上对大西洋TC的抑制更有效。因此，厄尔尼诺与全球暖化的联系可以用来指导对未来海温变暖的区域格局如何影响全球暖化活动的预期。如果未来的变暖影响厄尔尼诺事件的频率和强度，或者影响太平洋中部和东部风味的相对发生，这也可能产生直接影响。根据该奖项开展的工作将结合气候模型模拟、机器学习技术和混合动态统计模型，研究厄尔尼诺与tc的关系及其对气候变化的影响。该项目的一个目标是发展“紧急约束”，将气候模型中发现的厄尔尼诺- tc关系与观测记录中发现的关系联系起来。如果模式显示当前气候中的厄尔尼诺-温度变化关系与未来温度变化之间有很强的联系，那么正确模拟当前厄尔尼诺-温度变化关系的模式对未来温度变化的预估更可信。还探讨了厄尔尼诺事件影响TC活动的物理机制。鉴于tc对沿海社区构成的风险，以及对未来风险可能如何变化的指导价值，这项工作具有社会价值。该项目还建立了一个横跨从东海岸到夏威夷的三个机构的研究网络。除了其科学价值外，该网络还有助于克服夏威夷大学的地理隔离，这是一所为少数族裔服务的机构。该项目还支持哥伦比亚大学博士衔接项目的一名研究生，该项目帮助来自弱势群体的大学毕业生过渡到研究生院。最后，pi正在开发一门名为“跨天气和气候的机器学习应用”的在线课程，该课程将利用该项目的工具和结果。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Commitment to Active Allyship Is Required to Address the Lack of Hispanic and Latinx Representation in the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

需要致力于积极的盟友关系来解决地球和大气科学中西班牙裔和拉丁裔代表性不足的问题

• DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-22-0075.1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
• 影响因子: 8
• 作者: Morales, Annareli;Molina, Maria J.;Trujillo-Falcón, Joseph E.;Nuñez Ocasio, Kelly M.;Lang, Andrea L.;Murillo, Elisa;Bieri, Carolina;Barrett, Bradford S.;Avilés, Lourdes B.;Camargo, Suzana J.
• 通讯作者: Camargo, Suzana J.

Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming

• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01388-4
• 发表时间: 2022-06-27
• 期刊: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Chand, Savin S.;Walsh, Kevin J. E.;Murakami, Hiroyuki
• 通讯作者: Murakami, Hiroyuki

Advances in Tropical Cyclone Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales during 2019–2022

• DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.06.004
• 发表时间: 2023-06
• 期刊: Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: C. Schreck;F. Vitart;S. Camargo;J. Camp;James W. E. Darlow;R. Elsberry;J. Gottschalck;P. Gregory;K. Hansen;Justyn D. Jackson;M. Janiga;P. Klotzbach;Chia-ying Lee;L. Long;M. Nakano;Kazuto Takemura;Y. Takaya;Michael J. Ventrice;Zhuo Wang

Reply to: Limitations of reanalyses for detecting tropical cyclone trends

回复：重新分析检测热带气旋趋势的局限性

• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01880-5
• 发表时间: 2024
• 期刊: Nature Climate Change
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Chand, Savin S.;Walsh, Kevin J.;Camargo, Suzana J.;Kossin, James P.;Tory, Kevin J.;Wehner, Michael F.;Chan, Johnny C.;Klotzbach, Philip J.;Dowdy, Andrew J.;Bell, Samuel S.
• 通讯作者: Bell, Samuel S.

Phase transitions between tropical, subtropical, and extratropical cyclones: A review from IWTC-10

热带、亚热带和温带气旋之间的相变：IWTC-10 的回顾

• DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.11.002
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Wood, Kimberly;Yanase, Wataru;Beven, Jack;Camargo, Suzana J.;Courtney, Joseph B.;Fogarty, Chris;Fukuda, Junya;Kitabatake, Naoko;Kucas, Matthew;McTaggart-Cowan, Ron
• 通讯作者: McTaggart-Cowan, Ron