Collaborative Research: GOALI: Synergistic Improvement of Process Safety and Product Quality Using Process Databases

1066461索罗斯智慧价值化工和石油行业以及监管机构一直在提高加工厂的安全性，特别是在墨西哥湾、得克萨斯州、弗利克斯伯勒、塞维索和博帕尔等地发生的每一起新事故。另外呢，环保局，美国化学。委员会，桑迪亚·纳特尔。实验室、美国海岸警卫队和国防部。国土安全部已在适用于化工和石油行业的现有安全法规[OSHA过程安全管理(PSM)、环境保护局风险管理计划(RMP)]中增加了安全标准。尽管做出了这些努力，但与飞机、军事和核工业相比，这些行业对准确的风险和脆弱性评估的关注较少。潜在的人命损失和经济损失可能危及公司的生存，此外还有社会和法律上的复杂性，这增加了将固有的安全和保障以及动态风险评估和可靠性作为加工厂规划、开发、设计、控制和运营的重要要求的愿望。PIS开发了一个数学模型，利用Copulas和贝叶斯分析，在给定异常事件和事故前兆数据的情况下，估计与化学过程有关的各种关键事故情景的故障概率。他们将这一模型扩展到利用大型分布式控制系统(DCS)和紧急停机(ESD)系统数据库，涉及与工业催化裂化装置相关的警报数据。在这样做的过程中，他们开发了新的方法来评估绩效指标、进行警报系统分析以及评估停机(TRIPS)和事故的领先指标--以帮助流程操作员和管理人员识别险情并做出调整，以防止危险和代价高昂的事故的发生。在这项研究中，他们将介绍和研究化工厂动态风险评估的新方法，并与德克萨斯州纽瓦克的液化空气研究和开发公司合作测试他们的发现。这些方法将在稳定运行和启动期间使用分布式控制系统和ESD系统数据库进行测试。最初，他们将专门处理安全数据。逐渐地，他们将利用产品质量数据来识别险情并更有效地预防事故；即以协同的方式实现改善工艺安全和产品质量。将调查的研究挑战包括：(1)有效地处理与警报数据库相关的大型和复杂事件树，(2)系统地进行险情利用和管理以开发领先指标，(3)使用Copulas引入和测试新的贝叶斯分析方法，(4)开发从每个时刻的可用过程信息识别特殊原因的方法，(5)开发从每个时刻的可用过程信息预测可能的近期事故的方法，(6)有效地处理与高度相关的变量相关联的警报，以及(7)引入一种计算效率高的方法来估计与险些失手相关的利润损失。将开发原型软件来测试新技术，并进行全公司范围的动态风险分析。这些方法将在几个具有重要工业意义的过程中通过模拟和在Air Liquide实时实施和测试。更广泛的影响该项目的潜在影响包括社会、经济、技术和教育等。新方法将允许利用大型动态数据库进行更彻底的风险分析，提供更安全的加工厂，更一致地生产符合规格的产品，从而增加利润。这些方法和软件将提供给流程工业以及大学的设计和控制课程。这些新的风险评估技术将在未来版本的PI设计教科书中带来更多量化的安全覆盖范围。虽然该项目关注的是加工厂中的险情和故障概率，但这些技术可以很容易地用于其他行业/组织，如航空、医疗保健和核工业。这项工作本质上是多学科的，涉及化学工程师、风险分析师和统计学家。几个学生将在这个项目中接受培训。

1066461SoroushIntellectual Merit The chemical and petroleum industries and regulators have been improving the safety of processing plants, especially with every new accident such as those in the Gulf of Mexico, Texas City, Flixborough, Seveso, and Bhopal. In addition, the EPA, the American Chem. Council, Sandia Natl. Lab., the U.S. Coast Guard, and the Dept. of Homeland Security, have added security standards to existing safety regulations [OSHA Process Safety Management (PSM), EPA Risk Management Plan (RMP)] that apply to the chemical and petroleum industries. In spite of these efforts, the industries have devoted less attention to accurate risk and vulnerability assessments compared to the aircraft, military, and nuclear industries. The potential for loss of human lives and economic losses that may jeopardize companies' existences, in addition to social and legal complications, have increased the desire to have inherent safety and security, and dynamic risk assessment and reliability as vital requirements in the planning, development, design, control, and operations of processing plants. The PIs have developed a mathematical model to estimate the failure probabilities of various critical accident scenarios associated with a chemical process given abnormal events and accident precursor data, using copulas and Bayesian analysis. They extended this model to utilize large distributed control system (DCS) and emergency shutdown (ESD) system databases, involving alarm data associated with an industrial fluid-catalytic-cracking unit. In so doing, they developed new methods for estimating performance indicators, carrying out alarm system analysis, and estimating leading indicators of shut-downs (trips) and accidents - to assist process operators and management in recognizing near-misses and making adjustments to prevent the occurrence of dangerous and costly incidents. In this research, they will introduce and study new methods for dynamic risk assessment of chemical plants and test their findings in collaboration with Air Liquide Research and Development in Newark, DE. The methods will be tested using DCS and ESD system databases during steady operation and startup. Initially, they will work exclusively with safety data. Gradually, they will utilize product-quality data to identify near-misses and prevent accidents more effectively; that is, to achieve improved process safety and product quality in a synergistic way. Among the research challenges that will be investigated are: (1) efficiently handling large and complex event trees associated with alarm databases, (2) systematically conducting near-miss utilization and management to develop leading indicators, (3) introducing and testing a new Bayesian analysis method using copulas, (4) developing a method of identification of special causes from available process information at each time instant, (5) developing a method of predicting possible near-future accidents from available process information at each time instant, (6) efficiently handling the alarms associated with highly correlated variables, and (7) introducing a computationally-efficient method for estimating profit losses associated with near-misses. Prototype software will be developed to test the new techniques and to perform company-wide dynamic risk analysis. The methods will be implemented and tested on several industrially important processes through simulations and in real-time at Air Liquide. Broader Impacts Potential impacts of the project are societal, economical, technological and educational, among others. The new methods will permit more thorough risk analyses utilizing large dynamic databases providing safer processing plants that more consistently produce on-specification products, thus increasing profits. The methods and software will be available to the process industries and in design and control courses at universities. These new risk-assessment techniques will lead to more quantitative safety coverage in future editions of the PI's design textbook. Although the project focuses on near-misses and failure probabilities in processing plants, these techniques can be easily utilized in other industries/organizations, such as the aviation, healthcare and nuclear industries. The work is multidisciplinary in nature involving chemical engineers, risk analysts, and statisticians. Several students will be trained in this project.