Reliability Prediction Based on Dynamic Data Collected with Modern Technology

该奖项的研究目标是开发一个通用框架，可以将大规模的动态数据，以获得更准确的可靠性预测。智能芯片、传感器和无线网络等现代技术已经改变了数据收集过程。越来越多的产品安装了自动数据收集设备（ADCD），可以动态记录现场各个单元的系统性能、使用情况和环境信息，并/或在拥有者许可的情况下将这些信息传输到数据中心。这些产品包括喷气发动机、风力涡轮机、电力变压器和CAT扫描仪，以及汽车、复印机和智能手机。这项研究将首先开发将动态数据纳入预测的通用模型。然后将开发方法来量化统计的不确定性和使用动态数据的优势。将进行敏感度分析，以评估模型的不确定性。还将开发能够处理大规模数据集的计算效率高的算法和免费软件。所开发的方法将与来自工业和政府合作伙伴的数据集进行验证。如果成功，这项研究将为现场可靠性数据的生成提供急需的新范式。在不久的将来，当ADCD的成本进一步降低时，将有越来越多的产品配备ADCD。这项研究将在制造业、可再生能源和医疗保健等各个重要领域得到应用，因为可靠性信息对于制造商提高其产品的竞争地位至关重要，对于成本分析、资本支出和风险控制也很重要。自由软件的发展将使所开发的方法得以广泛传播。来自代表性不足群体和妇女的研究生和本科生将参与这项研究。研究与教学的整合将为学生提供现代可靠性数据分析的概念和技术。

The research objective of this award is to develop a general framework that can incorporate large-scale dynamic data to obtain more accurate reliability predictions. Modern technology, such as smart-chips, sensors and wireless networks, has changed data collection processes. There are more and more products installed with automatic data-collecting devices (ADCDs) which can dynamically record system performance, usage and environmental information for individual units in the field and/or transmit this information to data centers with owner's permissions. These products range from jet engines, wind turbines, power transformers and CAT scanners, to automobiles, copier machines and smart-phones. This research will first develop general models for incorporating dynamic data into predictions. Then methods will be developed for quantifying statistical uncertainties and advantage of using dynamic data. Sensitivity analysis will be conducted to assess model uncertainties. Computationally efficient algorithms and free software that is capable of processing large-scale datasets will also be developed. The developed methods will be validated with datasets from industrial and government partners.If successful, this research will provide a much-needed new paradigm for the arriving generation of field reliability data. In the near future when the cost of ADCDs further decreases, more and more products will be equipped with ADCDs. This research will have applications in various important areas such as manufacturing, renewable energy, and health care, because reliability information is critical for manufacturers to improve the competitive position of their products, and is also important for cost analysis, capital expenditures, and risk controls. The development of free software will make it possible for the developed methods to be widely disseminated. Graduate and undergraduate students from under-represented groups and women will be involved in this research. The integration of research with teaching will present students with modern reliability data analysis concepts and techniques.