GOALI: Reliability-Based Design and Operation of Metal Rolling Mills using Bayesian Theory and a New Rolling Model

这项学术与工业联络资助机会（GOALI）奖的研究目标是应用一种新的简化混合有限元辊堆挠度模型，作为贝叶斯理论的证据，计算金属轧制中达到重要标准的概率，包括带钢厚度轮廓和带钢平整度分布。概率预测将用于研究轧制过程不确定性的传播效应，并创建新的基于可靠性的轧机仿真和控制模型，从而实现更高质量，更有效的轧制计划。金属轧制工业解决过程不确定性的传统方法是使用统计过程控制来简单地监测质量和效率标准的变化。这种“向后看”的方法是有限的，因为它既没有根据轧制要求的预测概率估计来调整也没有优化工艺设置参数。相比之下，本研究奖项的方法是引入一种全新的“前瞻性”方法来优化轧制参数，该方法基于带钢厚度、轮廓和平整度的概率预测。如果成功，这项研究将使许多生产钢、铝和铜板的公司在经济上受益。这些公司将能够以更高的速度轧制金属产品，并具有卓越的平面度和厚度轮廓。金属轧机和相关控制系统的制造商也将从设计更具竞争力的轧制设备和系统的能力中受益。这项研究对社会和教育产生了更广泛的影响，其中包括圣路易斯刘易斯克拉克教育学院为市中心青少年提供的暑期研讨会项目。这些名为“数学与制造”的研讨会将激发五年级至八年级学生对数学、科学和工程在工业中发挥的令人兴奋的作用的兴趣。此外，由行业合作伙伴的工程师指导的研究型课堂项目将为工科本科生提供丰富的学习经验。

The research objective of this Grant Opportunity for Academic Liaison with Industry (GOALI) award is to apply a new simplified, mixed finite element roll-stack deflection model as evidence with Bayesian Theory to calculate probabilities of attaining important criteria in metal rolling, including strip thickness profile and strip flatness distributions. The probability predictions will be used to study propagation effects of rolling process uncertainties, and to create new reliability-based mill simulation and control models that lead to higher quality, more efficient rolling schedules. The metal rolling industry's traditional way of addressing process uncertainties is to use statistical process control to simply monitor resulting variations in quality and efficiency criteria. This "backward-looking" approach is limited in that it neither adjusts nor optimizes the process set-up parameters based on predictive probability estimates of the rolling requirements. In contrast, the approach of this research award is to introduce an entirely new "forward-looking" method to optimize rolling parameters based on probability predictions for strip thickness profile and flatness.If successful, this research will economically benefit the many companies producing steel, aluminum, and copper sheet. These companies will be able to roll metal products at higher speeds, and with superior flatness and thickness profiles. The manufacturers of metal rolling mills and associated control systems will also benefit from the capability to design more competitive rolling equipment and systems. The broader societal and educational impacts of this research involve summer workshop programs for inner city teens offered by the Lewis & Clark Educational Institute of Saint Louis. These workshops, entitled "Math and Manufacturing", will spark the interest of fifth to eighth graders as to the exciting roles that math, science, and engineering play in industry. Furthermore, research-driven classroom projects, mentored by engineers from the industry partner, will provide undergraduates engineering students with an enriched learning experience.