CNH: Co-Evolution of Upstream Human Behavior and Downstream Ecosystem Services in a Changing Climate
CNH:气候变化中上游人类行为和下游生态系统服务的共同进化
基本信息
- 批准号:1114934
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 150万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Standard Grant
- 财政年份:2011
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:2011-08-15 至 2017-01-31
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Non-point source nutrient and sediment runoff from upstream agricultural production is impairing coastal ecosystem services across the globe, including the Great Lakes, Chesapeake Bay, the northern Gulf of Mexico, and other regions of economic, recreational, and cultural importance. This degradation is projected to worsen with continued climate change, as more intense rains transport more nutrients and sediments downstream with impacts that include reduced water clarity, increases in harmful algal blooms, and a loss of high-valued fish stocks. To address these problems, many agricultural management practices have been identified that can reduce sediment and nutrient runoff. Effective design of policies to encourage adoption of effective agricultural management practices is limited by an important knowledge gap concerning human behavioral responses to ecosystem conditions, however. This interdisciplinary research project will use the Maumee River watershed and western Lake Erie as a model ecosystem to quantify the co-evolution between upstream human behavior and downstream ecosystem services. The investigators will model how public attitudes co-evolve with downstream ecosystem conditions and shape support for policies that impact agricultural management practices, and in turn, how farmers respond to these policies and public attitudes. They also will integrate biophysical models of the study region with behavioral models of public policy and farmer decision making to predict the co-evolution among public policies, farmer behavior, and downstream ecosystems under possible future scenarios. This modeling of the two-way coupling between upstream human behavior and downstream ecosystem services will address the question of whether changes in upstream public attitudes, policies, and farmer behavior will offset anticipated negative impacts of climate change on downstream ecosystem services.This project will develop a coupled human-natural system model that focuses on the dynamic feedback between upstream human behavioral responses and downstream ecosystem change. It will provide an assessment of how farmer behavioral responses mediate the interactions between specific policies and changing ecological conditions, and it will enhance understanding regarding the capacity of state and local policy makers to influence farmer behavior and downstream ecosystem conditions in ways that may counteract the expected negative impacts of climate change. While substantial research has focused on the one-way impacts of upstream nutrient inputs and fluxes on watershed functioning and downstream ecosystem services, key reverse linkages that shape public, policy, and farmer responses to ecological changes have received much less attention. The integrated model will provide the theoretical foundation for assessing the dynamic linkages between human attitudes and behaviors and downstream ecological conditions and will improve predictions of the dynamic effect of changing behavioral activities and climate on the availability and quality of downstream ecosystem services. This predictive knowledge is relevant to societal concerns because it will improve the ability of decision makers in coastal watersheds to manage adaptively to address negative impacts of climate change. The project also will provide education, training, and mentoring for undergraduate and graduate students and post-doctoral researchers. The investigators will work directly with Grade 6-12 teachers within rural school districts in the Maumee watershed to develop watershed science curriculum, and they will disseminate results more broadly by working with the Ohio Sea Grant College Program to develop and distribute materials targeted at decision makers and the general public. This project is supported by the NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program.
来自上游农业生产的非点源营养物和沉积物径流正在损害整个地球仪的沿海生态系统服务,包括五大湖、切萨皮克湾、墨西哥湾北方以及其他具有经济、娱乐和文化重要性的地区。 随着气候的持续变化,这种退化预计将进一步恶化,因为更强的降雨会将更多的营养物质和沉积物带到下游,造成的影响包括水的透明度降低,有害藻华增加,以及高价值鱼类种群的损失。 为了解决这些问题,已经确定了许多农业管理措施,可以减少沉积物和养分径流。 然而,关于人类对生态系统条件的行为反应的重要知识差距限制了有效设计政策以鼓励采用有效的农业管理做法。 这个跨学科的研究项目将使用莫米河流域和西部伊利湖作为一个模型生态系统,以量化上游人类行为和下游生态系统服务之间的共同进化。 研究人员将模拟公众态度如何与下游生态系统条件共同演变,并形成对影响农业管理实践的政策的支持,以及农民如何应对这些政策和公众态度。 他们还将研究区域的生物物理模型与公共政策和农民决策的行为模型相结合,以预测未来可能的情景下公共政策,农民行为和下游生态系统之间的共同进化。 本项目通过建立上游人类行为与下游生态系统服务之间的双向耦合模型,研究上游公众态度、政策和农民行为的变化是否会抵消气候变化对下游生态系统服务的负面影响,建立一个关注上游人类行为响应与下游生态系统变化之间动态反馈的人-自然耦合系统模型。 它将提供一个评估农民的行为反应如何调解具体政策和不断变化的生态条件之间的相互作用,它将提高对国家和地方政策制定者的能力,以影响农民的行为和下游生态系统条件的方式,可能会抵消气候变化的预期负面影响的理解。 虽然大量的研究集中在上游养分投入和通量对流域功能和下游生态系统服务的单向影响,但塑造公众,政策和农民对生态变化的反应的关键反向联系受到的关注要少得多。 综合模型将为评估人类态度和行为与下游生态条件之间的动态联系提供理论基础,并将改善对不断变化的行为活动和气候对下游生态系统服务的可用性和质量的动态影响的预测。 这种预测性知识与社会关切相关,因为它将提高沿海流域决策者适应性管理的能力,以应对气候变化的负面影响。 该项目还将为本科生、研究生和博士后研究人员提供教育、培训和指导。 调查人员将直接与Maumee流域农村学区内的6-12年级教师合作,开发流域科学课程,他们将通过与俄亥俄州海洋赠款学院计划合作,更广泛地传播成果,以开发和分发针对决策者和公众的材料。 该项目由NSF耦合自然和人类系统动力学(CNH)计划支持。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
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Jay Martin其他文献
Looking ahead of real time in hybrid component networks
展望混合组件网络的实时性
- DOI:
10.1109/pads.2001.924617 - 发表时间:
2001 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Kaixin Xu;M. Takai;Jay Martin;R. Bagrodia - 通讯作者:
R. Bagrodia
Advancing SWAT modeling with rainfall risk-based fertilizer timing to improve nutrient management and crop yields
通过基于降雨风险的施肥时间来推进SWAT模型,以改善养分管理和作物产量
- DOI:
10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109555 - 发表时间:
2025-07-01 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:6.500
- 作者:
Asmita Murumkar;Mahesh Tapas;Jay Martin;Margaret Kalcic;Vinayak Shedekar;Dustin Goering;Andrea Thorstensen;Chelsie Boles;Todd Redder;Rem Confesor - 通讯作者:
Rem Confesor
Scenargie as a Network Simulator and Beyond
Scenargie 作为网络模拟器及其他应用
- DOI:
10.2197/ipsjjip.27.2 - 发表时间:
2019 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
M. Takai;Jay Martin;S. Kaneda;T. Maeno - 通讯作者:
T. Maeno
Jay Martin的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Jay Martin', 18)}}的其他基金
Impacts of Green Infrastructure on the Microbiome of Urban Stormwater: Reducing Threats to Public Health
绿色基础设施对城市雨水微生物组的影响:减少对公共健康的威胁
- 批准号:
1805047 - 财政年份:2018
- 资助金额:
$ 150万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
A Comprehensive Analysis of Petroleum Hydrocarbons in Storm Water: Application of Natural Carbon Isotopes to Evaluate the Efficacy of Bioretention Systems
雨水中石油烃的综合分析:应用天然碳同位素评估生物滞留系统的功效
- 批准号:
1236224 - 财政年份:2012
- 资助金额:
$ 150万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
US-Costa Rica - International Doctoral Dissertation Research: Optimizing Energy Production and Waste Treatment in Small-Scale Digesters
美国-哥斯达黎加 - 国际博士论文研究:优化小型沼气池的能源生产和废物处理
- 批准号:
0731589 - 财政年份:2007
- 资助金额:
$ 150万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Midwestern Alliance in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics
中西部科学、技术、工程和数学联盟
- 批准号:
0533197 - 财政年份:2005
- 资助金额:
$ 150万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
U.S.-Mexico Dissertation Enhancement Research: Indigenous Natural Resource Management and Food Production in Southern Mexico
美国-墨西哥论文增强研究:墨西哥南部土著自然资源管理和粮食生产
- 批准号:
0431230 - 财政年份:2004
- 资助金额:
$ 150万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Japan STA Program: Combustion Studies of a Duel-Fuel Diesel Engine
日本 STA 项目:双燃料柴油机的燃烧研究
- 批准号:
9300617 - 财政年份:1993
- 资助金额:
$ 150万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
U.S. Japan Long-Term Research Visit: Diesel Combustion Modeling and Inlet Port Geometrical Effects on Flow and Combustion
美日长期考察访问:柴油机燃烧建模及进气口几何对流动和燃烧的影响
- 批准号:
9012744 - 财政年份:1991
- 资助金额:
$ 150万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
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