CNH: The Emergence of Adaptive Governance Arrangements for Tropical Forest Ecosystems

这项研究将产生关于适应性森林治理起源的长期问题的新知识。以前的研究已经确定，有效的森林治理成果需要强有力的制度安排，即构建人类行为的规则系统。但是，使强有力的制度安排得以形成的具体背景因素仍然是一个谜。这项研究通过收集和分析人类如何与自然环境相互作用的新数据，直接解决了这个难题。该项目将结合新的数据收集和先进的分析方法，严格检验适应性治理的出现与三个因素密切相关的假设：当地生态知识；文化价值观和信仰，以及社会经济不平等。将从玻利维亚和乌干达的56个社区管理的热带森林生态系统收集数据，并将侧重于衡量个人和社区在获取和利用森林资源方面作出决策的可能原因和后果。这些数据将通过各种数据收集方法生成，包括森林组成的直接测量、卫星图像、森林用户行为研究、住户调查、焦点小组讨论以及对关键举报人和决策者的访谈。将使用系统动力学模型、横断面时间序列分析和定性比较分析来分析数据，以确定当地生态知识、文化价值和信仰以及资源用户群体内部的社会经济不平等等相互关联的因素如何影响森林保护结果。这项研究挑战了传统观点，即外部激励，如直接向森林使用者付款，将统一导致森林保护的增加，并将产生关于森林保护工作如何影响森林使用者在各种社会经济和文化背景下的决策和行为的信息。这一新知识将使人们对减少发展中国家毁林和森林退化造成的排放的全球计划的潜在效益有更细致的认识。由于世界各地的组织都在努力制定促进有效的自然资源治理的政策，这项研究具有直接的实用价值。

This research will generate new knowledge on long-standing questions about the origins of adaptive forest governance. Previous research has established that strong institutional arrangements, i.e., the rule systems that structure human behavior, are needed for effective forest governance outcomes. But the specific contextual factors that enable strong institutional arrangements to take form remain a puzzle. This research directly addresses this puzzle by collecting and analyzing new data on how humans interact with their natural environment. This project will combine new data collection and advanced analytical methods to rigorously test the hypothesis that the emergence of adaptive governance is critically linked to three factors: local ecological knowledge; cultural values and beliefs, and socioeconomic inequalities. Data will be collected from 56 community-managed tropical forest ecosystems in Bolivia and Uganda and will focus on the measurement of possible causes and consequences of individual and community decision making about access to and use of forest resources. These data will be generated using a variety of data collection methods, including direct measures of forest composition, satellite imagery, studies of forest user behaviors, household surveys, focus group discussions, and interviews with key informants and decision makers. Data will be analyzed using system-dynamics models, cross-sectional time-series analysis, and qualitative comparative analysis to determine how the interrelated factors of local ecological knowledge, cultural values and beliefs, and socio-economic inequality within resource user groups affect forest conservation outcomes. This research challenges the conventional wisdom that extrinsic incentives, such as direct payments to forest users, will uniformly lead to increased forest conservation, and will produce information on how forest conservation efforts affect forest users' decisions and behavior in a variety of socioeconomic and cultural settings. This new knowledge will build a more nuanced view of the potential benefits of a global program to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries. The research is of immediate practical value as organizations around the world struggle to create policies that promote effective natural resource governance.