Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Political Competition and Refugee Policy

接收难民的国家以各种方式对他们作出回应。一些收容国采取了比其他收容国更为慷慨的难民政策，随着时间的推移，单个国家的反应在慷慨和限制之间转变。这个项目的中心研究问题是：如何解释各州难民政策的这些差异？本项目认为，一个特定国家的难民政策选择不能通过检查其内部安全问题、经济气候或公众态度来充分解释。相反，本研究将证明，国际和国内的政治竞争导致各国对其接收的每个难民群体采取一套不同的政策。一方面，各国利用难民安抚国际盟友，并向竞争对手施加压力。与此同时，各国政府也有政治动机，倾向于认同其主要民族身份的难民群体。好像每个国家都有一个单一的难民政策，这掩盖了难民群体之间待遇的重要差异。两种方法将用于解决研究问题和调查上述理论：统计分析和案例研究。首先，统计分析将探讨各国决定接纳难民进入其领土的一般模式。第二，将进行三个案例研究。埃及、肯尼亚和土耳其有一些相同的难民群体，但每个国家都有不同的民族构成，与邻国的关系历史也不同。案例研究方法使我们能够更详细地检查政策制定过程，并将更广泛的难民政策纳入分析。统计和案例研究的组成部分相互补充，并结合在一起，为我们的发现提供了更大的信心。除了智力上的价值外，该项目还将产生两个更广泛的影响。首先，将公布一个新的难民流动数据集。其次，结果可以为联合国难民署以及相关的当地和国际非政府组织的活动提供信息。

Countries receiving refugees have responded to them in a variety of ways. Some host countries have adopted more generous refugee policies than others, and single countries have shifted between generous and restrictive responses over time. The central research question for this project is: What explains these differences in states' refugee policies?This project argues that a given state's choice of refugee policies cannot be adequately explained by examining its internal security concerns, economic climate, or public attitudes. Instead, this study will demonstrate that international and domestic political competition lead countries to adopt a distinct set of policies for each group of refugees they receive. On the one hand, states use refugees to reassure international allies and exert pressure on rivals. At the same time, governments have political incentives to favor refugee groups who share their predominant ethnic identity. Treating countries as though each had a single blanket refugee policy masks important disparities in treatment between refugee groups.Two methods will be used to address the research question and investigate the theory described above: statistical analysis and case studies. First statistical analysis will explore general patterns in countries' decisons to admit refugees onto their territory. Second, three case studies will be conducted. Egypt, Kenya, and Turkey share some of the same refugee groups, but each country has a different ethnic composition and a different history of relations with its neighbors. The case study approach allows us to examine the policymaking process in richer detail and incorporate a broader spectrum of refugee policies into the analysis. The statistical and case study components complement each other, and in combination provide greater confidence in our findings.Besides the intellectual merits of the project, it will have two main broader impacts. First, a new dataset on refugee flows will be made public. Second, results may inform the activities of the UN Refugee Agency as as well as relevant local and international NGOs.