Evaluating the Returns to Rural Banking: Village and Household Evidence from Southern India

世界所有地区的发展政策都非常重视向穷人提供金融服务，其动机是相信金融普惠能使穷人发展创收活动，提高他们应对冲击的能力。这些项目中最突出的是小额信贷；目前全世界估计有1.3亿至1.9亿小额信贷借款人，2008年未偿还贷款超过430亿美元。在发展文献和政策圈中，一个悬而未决的大问题是，小额信贷在多大程度上实现了它帮助家庭摆脱贫困和利用经济机会的承诺。一个相关的问题是，怎样改变小额信贷的设计才能使其规模和影响最大化。这项拟议中的研究旨在考察通过格莱珉银行开创的共同小额信贷模式减轻印度农村家庭获得金融服务的障碍所带来的后果。这一问题不仅是经济发展理论的核心话题，而且具有当前政策的重要性，因为根据最近来自城市小额信贷评估的经验证据和印度小额信贷部门正在出现的危机，小额信贷作为减贫工具的价值最近受到了质疑。关于过度负债的谣言导致安得拉邦的政府监管导致了大规模的违约，并引发了人们对向穷人贷款的影响和可行性的担忧。更普遍的是，从业人员开始质疑债务是否可以作为一种有效的反贫穷措施，因为穷人容易受到管制不足的贷款人的剥削。考虑到该行业的规模、世界大部分地区监管的新生状态，以及小额信贷有效性辩论的政治化，我们有必要更细致地了解小额信贷项目的影响，并理清产品设计、个人和社会特征在影响影响方面的不同角色。拟议的研究项目旨在填补我们对小额信贷对发展中国家穷人福利影响的理解中的关键空白。该项目包括四个相关的分析，每个分析都利用了印度南部泰米尔纳德邦的大规模随机对照实验。四年后，将在160个农村地区开设银行网点，提供包括经典小额信贷连带责任贷款产品在内的综合金融服务，覆盖80万农村人口。其中随机选择的一半将在头两年内建成，其余80个地点的扩建将至少推迟两年。随机推出将允许估计金融服务的因果影响，因为分行的存在将与村庄和家庭特征无关。该项目将综合运用在第一家银行分行开业前和开业两年后进行的详细家庭调查、社会网络测绘、实地抽奖和生物标志物等方法，评估改善农村金融服务可及性的影响。第一项研究考察了获得信贷是否会增加农村家庭收入。虽然在城市地区进行了关于小额信贷的实验性研究，但农村社区相对孤立和社会资本水平较稳定表明，农村环境的结果可能不同。该项目将收集有关家庭收入和消费、创收活动以及家庭应对冲击能力的数据。第二项研究使用独特的生物标志物和调查数据来确定金融包容性对身心健康的影响，有助于就小额信贷如何影响精神痛苦和贫困的非金融组成部分进行紧急政策辩论。这个项目吗?S的目标是收集有关营养、食品安全、健康支出、通过头发样本中的皮质醇测量和心理压力测量来衡量压力的生理指标的数据。第三项研究考察了获得银行服务对社会网络结构和提供非正式保险的影响。由于小额信贷通常需要组建贷款小组并定期召开小组会议进行还款，因此该项目将衡量小额信贷对客户广度和深度的影响。网络和家庭间转移活动。最后的分析研究了银行服务对农村地区采用农业技术的影响。该项目将通过收集有关作物和种子选择、耕作技术和投入物使用的数据来衡量影响。通过这组分析，本研究旨在提供因果实验证据，证明增加融资渠道对各种重要且研究不足的结果的影响。虽然对小额信贷项目进行了一些实验性研究，但这些研究主要集中在城市地区。与此同时，世界范围内的小额信贷活动不仅更多地以农村地区为目标，而且有理由相信农村地区的结果将有所不同。现有的研究也未能彻底研究贫穷对健康或精神痛苦等更广泛的非财务指标的影响。随着大量公共和私人资源投入到扩大向穷人提供金融服务的工作中，彻底调查小额信贷对贫困的影响至关重要。深入了解综合金融服务的影响将为印度和全球的金融包容性政策提供信息。研究成果和相关数据集的传播将有助于决策者评估将小额信贷服务扩展到农村地区的收益和成本效益。此外，它将填补关于小额信贷优点的学术和政策讨论向前发展所必需的关键研究空白。

Evaluating the Returns to Rural Banking:Village and Household Evidence from Southern IndiaAbstractDevelopment policy in all regions of the world has a strong focus on providing financial services to the poor, motivated by the belief that financial inclusion enables the poor to develop income-generating activities and improves their ability to cope with shocks. Prominent among these programs is microfinance; there are currently an estimated 130-190 million microfinance borrowers worldwide and outstanding loans exceeded $43 billion in 2008. A large open question in the development literature and in policy circles is the degree to which microfinance has fulfilled its promise of helping households pull themselves out of poverty and take advantage of economic opportunities. A related question is what changes to the design of microfinance can maximize its scale and influence. The proposed research, seeks to examine the consequences for rural households in India of alleviating barriers to financial services through the common microfinance model pioneered by the Grameen Bank.This question is not only a core topic in economic development theory, but is also of current policy importance since the value of microfinance as a tool for poverty alleviation has recently been called into question in light of recent empirical evidence from urban microfinance evaluations and the emerging crisis in the Indian microfinance sector. Rumors of over-indebtedness led to government regulation in the state of Andhra Pradesh which caused wide-scale default and fueled concerns about both the impact and viability of lending to the poor. More generally, practitioners are beginning to question whether debt can be used as an effective anti-poverty measure given the vulnerability of the poor to exploitation by under-regulated lenders. Given the size of the sector, the nascent state of regulation in much of the world, and the politicization of the debate over the efficacy of microfinance, it is critical that we gain a more nuanced understanding of the impact of microfinance programs and disentangle the separate roles of product design and individual and social characteristics in influencing impact.The proposed research project seeks to fill critical gaps in our understanding of the impact of microfinance on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. The project consists of four related analyses, each of which exploits a large-scale randomized controlled experiment in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu. Over four years, bank branches offering comprehensive financial services including the classic microfinance joint liability loan product will be opened in 160 rural sites, covering a rural population of 800,000. A randomly selected half of these will be built over the first two years and expansion in the remaining 80 locations will be delayed for at least two years. Randomized rollout will allow estimation of the causal impact of financial services since the presence of a branch will be uncorrelated with village and household characteristics. The project will assess the impact of improved rural financial access using a combination of detailed household surveys conducted before and two years after the first bank branch opens, social network mapping, a field based lottery and biomarkers. The first study examines whether access to credit increases household income in a rural setting. While experimental studies on microfinance have occurred in urban areas, the relative isolation of rural communities and more stable levels of social capital suggest that results in a rural setting may be different. This project will collect data on household income and consumption, income-generating activities, and ability of households to respond to shocks.The second study uses unique biomarkers and survey data to determine the impact of financial inclusion on physical and mental health, contributing to urgent policy debates on how microfinance impacts mental distress and non-financial components of poverty. The project?s goal is to collect data on nutrition, food security, health expenditures, physiological indicators of stress through cortisol measurements in hair samples, and psychological stress measures. The third study examines the impact of access to banking services on the structure of social networks and provision of informal insurance. Since microfinance typically requires formation of loan groups and regular group meetings for repayment, the project will measure the impact of microfinance on the breadth and depth of clients? networks and inter-household transfer activity.The final analysis studies the impact of banking services on the adoption of agricultural technologies in rural settings. The project will measure impact by collecting data on choice of crops and seeds, farming techniques, and input usage.Through this set of analyses, this study aims to provide causal experimental evidence of the impact of increased access to finance on a variety of important and under-studied outcomes. While a few experimental studies have been conducted on microfinance programs, these focus on urban areas. Meanwhile, not only is microfinance activity worldwide more heavily targeted to rural areas, but there is reason to believe that results will be different in rural areas. Existing studies have also failed to thoroughly study impact on broader, non-financial measures of poverty such as health or mental distress. With the amount of public and private resources invested in expanding financial access to the poor, it is critical to thoroughly investigate the impact of microfinance on poverty. An in-depth understanding of the impact of comprehensive financial services will inform policy on financial inclusion both in India and globally. Dissemination of the research findings and associated datasets will help policymakers evaluate the benefits and cost-effectiveness of extending microfinance services to rural areas. Moreover, it will fill critical gaps in research necessary for the academic and policy discussion on the merits of microfinance to move forward.