Microentrepreneurship, Business Growth and SME transition: The Long-run Impact of Repayment Flexibility

摘要提案编号：SES -1329354机构：美国国家经济研究局NSF计划：经济学首席研究员：潘德，罗西尼标题：微型创业，业务增长和中小企业转型：还款能力的长期影响金融包容性被誉为消除贫困的重要工具。人们认为，金融普惠的一个好处是，它使受援者能够创办和发展创收微型企业。然而，对将穷人与信贷联系起来的最广泛认可的方法之一-小额供资-的影响研究表明，平均而言，小额贷款在实现企业增长方面的成功相对较小。 更广泛地说，大多数微型企业未能成长为更大和更可持续的企业，这给发展经济学领域带来了一个重大难题。为了了解小额供资的提供与微型企业增长的异质性之间的关系-并了解微型企业向中小企业地位过渡的制约因素-本项目将联合收割机结合一个小额供资实地试验，该试验取得了巨大的增长成果，并提供了关于企业历史和企业主个人特点的详细数据。这项国家科学基金会赠款将通过实施一项研究设计，利用（1）印度小额信贷部门的流动性危机和（2）初始微型企业规模的实验性变化所带来的外源性变化，对微型企业的增长进行研究。 2010年底，这一客户群体面临与全部门小额金融监管制度变化有关的严重流动性危机。这一变化是由印度南部的一系列小额金融客户困境账户引发的。这种流动性危机从印度南部蔓延到全国其他地区的小额信贷客户。2006年至2007年在印度加尔各答对小额信贷客户进行的实地试验造成了微型企业规模的差异：对照客户被要求根据标准合同立即开始还款，而治疗客户则有两个月的宽限期。Field等人（即将出版）表明，客户在业务规模方面经历了长期的异质性，相对于对照组，治疗客户的增长更高。目前的研究将重新调查实验干预中的所有845名客户，以生成一个为期七年的纵向数据集。本次调查的时机将允许检查企业规模是否以及如何抑制流动性危机对随后业务增长的影响。由于研究人群在这段时间内面临着重大的总流动性危机，本研究将探讨企业规模如何影响应对金融冲击的能力。 此外，原始跟踪数据显示，过去六年来，相当一部分样本微型企业的资本价值大幅增长。因此，除了审查Field等人（即将出版）干预措施的长期影响，以及上述流动性危机是否根据企业的初始规模对企业产生了不同的影响外，扩大调查范围还将分析企业从微型企业向中小企业发展的决定因素。最后，这项调查将提供管理和所有权方面的信息，以便按性别对企业业绩进行比较。这一证据将补充以前对男女创业业绩进行比较的研究，并通过审查家庭内部企业分工（跨性别）本身是否是内生的来进一步研究。如果答案是肯定的，那么这将是一个重要的警告，任何研究，比较女性和男性拥有的企业，以隔离所有者性别对企业增长的影响。这项研究的结果和结论对微型企业扩张的制约因素将是相关的印度，但也有类似的社会经济概况的其他国家。随着南亚准备进入一个新的监管制度，这项工作也将对该区域的小额金融监管产生重大影响。调查结果将有助于确定是否以及如何监管合同灵活性，应在多大程度上重视客户筛选，以及利率补贴的作用。最后，研究结果也与旨在提高妇女地位的政策有关，因为它为实现这一目标的方法提供了证据，并将有助于目前学术文献中关于这一主题的辩论。

AbstractProposal No: SES - 1329354Institution: National Bureau of Economic Research IncNSF Program: ECONOMICSPrincipal Investigator: Pande, RohiniTitle: Micro-entrepreneurship, Business Growth and SME transition: The Long-run Impact of Repayment FlexibilityFinancial inclusion is lauded as an important tool in the fight against poverty. One perceived benefit of financial inclusion is that it enables recipients to launch and grow income-generating microenterprises. Yet, impact studies of one of the most widely recognized methods of connecting the poor to credit- microfinance- suggest that the success of microloans in achieving enterprise growth is, on average, relatively small. More broadly, the failure of most microenterprises to grow into larger and more sustainable businesses has posed a major puzzle to the field of development economics. In order to understand the relationship between the provision of microfinance and the heterogeneity in microenterprise growth - and to understand constraints on microenterprise transition to SME status - this project will combine a microfinance field experiment that yielded large growth results with detailed data on business histories and individual characteristics of business owners. This National Science Foundation grant will enable the study of microenterprise growth by implementing a research design that exploits exogenous variation introduced by (1) a liquidity crisis in the Indian microcredit sector, and experimental variation in (2) initial microenterprise size. At the end of 2010, this client population faced a very significant liquidity crisis related to a sector-wide microfinance regulatory regime change. This change was sparked by a series of microfinance client distress accounts in South India. This liquidity crisis spread from South India to microfinance clients through the rest of the country. The variation in microenterprise size was created by a field experiment conducted on microcredit loan clients in Kolkata, India between 2006 and 2007: control clients were required to begin repayment immediately in accordance with the standard contract, while treatment clients received a two-month grace period. Field et al. (forthcoming) show that clients experienced long-run heterogeneity in business size, with higher growth among treatment clients relative to the control group. The current study will resurvey all 845 clients in the experimental intervention to generate a seven-year longitudinal dataset. The timing of this survey will allow the examination of whether and how business size dampens the impact of a liquidity crisis on subsequent business growth. Because the study population faced a significant aggregate liquidity crisis during this time period, this study will investigate how enterprise size influences ability to deal with financial shocks. Additionally, the original tracking data show that, over the past six years, a significant fraction of sample microenterprises witnessed substantial growth in capital value. Thus, in addition to examining the long-run impacts of the Field et al (forthcoming) intervention, and whether the aforementioned liquidity crisis differentially impacted business according to their initial size, the survey expansion will analyze the determinants of business growth from microenterprise towards SME status. Lastly, this survey will have managerial and ownership information that will allow the comparison of business performance by gender. This evidence will complement previous research comparing male versus female entrepreneurial performance, and further it by examining whether intra-household division of enterprises (across genders) is itself endogenous. If yes, this would be an important caveat on any research that compares female- and male-owned businesses in order to isolate the impact of owner gender on business growth.The results and conclusions of this study on constraints to microenterprise expansion will be relevant for India, but also other countries with similar socioeconomic profiles. With South Asia poised to enter a new regulatory regime, this work will also have significant implications for microfinance regulation in the region. The findings will help identify whether and how contract flexibility should be regulated, how much emphasis should be placed on client screening, and the role of interest rate subsidies. Finally, the results are also relevant for policy that seeks to increase the status of women, as it provides evidence on approaches that serve that goal, and will contribute to the current debate in academic literature on this topic.