Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Party Entry and Voter Coordination Across Electoral Systems: A Natural Experiment

我们如何解释参加选举竞争的政党数量？与此相关的是，我们如何解释选民围绕这些政党的一个子集进行协调？这些问题是代议制民主的根本问题，其影响是深远的。例如，如果有太多的特定类型的政党，也许是中间偏左，选民无法辨别哪些是真正可行的，一个协调良好的右翼政党可能会以压倒性的优势掌权，尽管民众的支持率相对较低。政治学家长期以来一直在研究这些问题，通常是通过定量的、跨国的制度分析，但在一些重要问题上仍然存在争论，比如选举法的差异对进入和协调的影响。这个项目利用一个可控的比较，为经典和原始的因果论证提供清晰和直接的见解。在英国，地方议会的选举与国家议会的选举在同一个地理区域内进行。然而，这两套选举中使用的选举规则是不同的。这创造了一个可控的比较，我们可以探索反事实：如果我们修改选举规则，但保持选民和地区特征不变，那么进入和协调将如何变化？本研究将通过整合三种数据来源来探讨这个问题，以提供战略性政党进入和选民协调的细致图景：(1)按地区层面分解的选举数据；(2)从对政党领导人的访谈中收集的关于入党决定的定性证据；(3)个人层面的投票选择调查数据。这个项目的调查结果应适用于世界上许多国家，这些国家正面临关于选举改革和政治权力下放的优点的辩论。特别是对于混合成员体系，其对战略进入和协调的影响仍不清楚，该项目的研究结果将直接说明这一重要的制度选择。由于混合成员制是目前世界各地采用的最流行的选举规则新形式，该项目将对改革者的决策作出重要贡献。

How can we explain the number of parties that enter electoral competition? Related to this, how can we explain the coordination of voters around a subset of these parties? These questions are fundamental to representative democracy and their implications are far ranging. For example, where there are too many parties of a particular type, perhaps Left-of-Center, and voters fail to discern which oens are truly viable, one well-coordinated party on the Right may overwhelming sweep to power despite the relative low levels of popular support. Political scientists have long investigated these questions, typically through quantitative, cross-national institutional analyses, but debate still exists on imporatn topics such as the effects of differences in electoral laws on both entry and coordination. This project leverages a cotnrolled comparison to provide clear and straightforward insights into both classic and original causal arguments. In the U.K., elections to the regional parliaments take place within the smae geographic districts as elections to the national parliament. The electoral rules used in these two sets of elections, however, are different. This creates a controlled comparison where we can explore the counterfactual: how would entry and coordination vary if we modified the electoral rules, but left the set of voters and the districts' characteristics intact? This research will explore this question by integrating three sources of data to provide a nuanced picture of strategic party entry and voter coordination: (1) electoral data disaggregated to the district level; (2) qualitative evidence gathered from interviews with party leaders about entry decisions; and (3) individual-level survey data about vote choice.Findings from this project should be applicable in a number of countries around the world that are facing debates on the merits of electoral reform and political devolution. Especially regarding mixed member systems, where the implications for strategic entry and coordination are still unclear, the finding of this project will speak directly to this important institutional choice. As mixed member systems are currently the most popular new form of electoral rules under adoption around the world, this project stands to make an important contribution to the decisions made by reformers.