RAPID: Predictability of Atmospheric Teleconnections in Initialized Decadal Forecasts

RAPID:初始年代际预报中大气遥相关的可预测性

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    1125561
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 3万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2011
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2011-05-01 至 2012-04-30
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

This is one of 16 Rapid Response (RAPID) projects funded as the result of a Dear Colleague Letter (NSF 11-006) encouraging diagnostic analyses of climate model simulations prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Research conducted in these projects is expected to lead to more detailed model intercomparisons, better understanding of robust model behaviors, and better understanding and quantification of uncertainty in future climate simulations. This project considers the potential predictability of decadal climate variabiality in hindcast simulations prepared for the AR5. These 10-year hindcast experiments are performed with models in which ocean properties, principally sea surface temperature (SST), are initialized using observations every five years starting in 1960, with additional 30-year hindcasts starting in 1960, 1980, and 2005 (actually a forecast in the later years). The hindcast experiments are a novel feature in AR5 with no counterpart in the Fourth Assessment Report, and they are designed to determine the extent to which decadal-scale climate changes of relevance to policy makers are predictable given the state of the ocean and the beginning of the forecast period.Research conducted in this project assess the skill of atmospheric teleconnections forced by SST anomalies in the Pacific and Indian Oceans that are predictable on decadal timescales in the hindcast ensemble. Skill is assessed by comparisons between observed and hindcasted patterns of rainfall, air temperature, and circulation anomalies. Additional comparisons are performed with uninitialized simulations of the 20th century forced by greenhouse gas increases and other external forcings (e.g. volcanos, aerosols, and solar variability), so that the extent to which predictability depends on external forcing rather than initialized internal variability can be assessed.The broader impact of the project lies in its support of the IPCC AR5, which is intended to provide information on climate change and its consequences to decision makers worldwide. Successful decadal climate forecasts could be of value to to resource managers developing informed adaptation strategies, but first the degree to which such forecasts are achievable must be determined.
这是16个快速反应(RAPID)项目之一,作为亲爱的同事信(NSF 11-006)的结果,鼓励对政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告(IPCC AR 5)准备的气候模型模拟进行诊断分析。在这些项目中进行的研究预计将导致更详细的模式相互比较,更好地了解强大的模式行为,更好地了解和量化未来气候模拟中的不确定性。 该项目考虑了为第五次评估报告准备的后报模拟中年代际气候变率的潜在可预测性。 这些10年的后报实验是用海洋特性,主要是海表温度(SST)的模型进行的,从1960年开始每五年使用观测值进行初始化,从1960年,1980年和2005年开始进行额外的30年后报(实际上是后来几年的预测)。 后测实验是第五次评估报告的一个新特点,在第四次评估报告中没有对应的内容,他们的目的是确定在多大程度上,考虑到海洋的状况和预测期的开始,与决策者相关的尺度气候变化是可预测的。本项目进行的研究评估了太平洋和印度洋SST异常强迫的大气遥相关的技巧,是可预测的年代际时间尺度的后报合奏。 通过比较观测到的降雨、气温和环流异常的模式,评估技能。 另外的比较与未初始化的模拟20世纪世纪被迫温室气体的增加和其他外部强迫(如火山、气溶胶和太阳变率),从而可以评估可预测性在多大程度上取决于外部强迫而不是初始内部变率。其目的是向全世界的决策者提供有关气候变化及其后果的信息。 成功的十年期气候预测对于资源管理者制定知情的适应战略可能是有价值的,但首先必须确定这种预测的可实现程度。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(0)
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会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)

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Amy Solomon其他文献

The YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation
YOPP站点模型比对项目(YOPPsiteMIP)第一阶段:项目概述和北极冬季预报评估
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Jonathan Day;Gunilla Svensson;Barbara Casati;T. Uttal;S. Khalsa;Eric Bazile;Elena Akish;Niramson Azouz;Lara Ferrighi;Helmut Frank;Michael Gallagher;Øystein Godøy;L. Hartten;Laura X. Huang;Jareth I. Holt;Massimo Di Stefano;I. Suomi;Z. Mariani;Sara Morris;Ewan O’Connor;Roberta Pirazzini;Teresa Remes;R. Fadeev;Amy Solomon;Johanna Tjernström;M. Tolstykh
  • 通讯作者:
    M. Tolstykh
Snow thermal conductivity and conductive flux in the Central Arctic: Estimates from observations and implications for models
北极中部的雪热导率和传导通量:观测估计值和对模型的影响
  • DOI:
    10.1525/elementa.2023.00086
  • 发表时间:
    2024
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    A. Sledd;M. Shupe;Amy Solomon;Christopher J. Cox;D. Perovich;Ruibo Lei
  • 通讯作者:
    Ruibo Lei

Amy Solomon的其他文献

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