AGS-PRF: The Large Scale Impact of Wind Shear on Convection

知识价值：在局地尺度上，众所周知，风切变通过调节对流模式和强度来影响对流。然而，在气候模拟所需的尺度上，风切变如何影响对流是未知的。因此，全球气候模式（GCM）对流参数化没有考虑风切变。这种简化导致了未知大小的误差，并增加了GCM对地球水文和辐射预算的估计的不确定性，损害了对未来气候的预测。为了帮助回答这个问题，本研究将验证以下假设：在等效热力学环境中，在GCM分辨率下，风切变的存在会增强对流。这一假设将通过大量对流解析模型的运行进行研究。这些天气研究和预报（WRF）模拟将由三个机构的合作者提供：国家大气研究中心、国家强风暴实验室和国家环境预测中心。对流统计数据将从这些模拟中得到，以gcm的分辨率来了解在类似的热力学环境中对流特性如何随风切变而变化。更广泛的影响：这项研究将有助于填补强对流和气候模拟界之间存在的知识空白，并将提高对地球气候系统的理解和对gcm当前不确定性的认识。通过确定风切变及其对对流的影响是否需要包括在未来的对流参数化中，或者可以安全地忽略，研究结果将有助于未来gcm参数化的发展。如果这项工作支持提出的假设，从这项研究中得出的统计数据将作为参数化开发人员的起点。无论这一假设是被支持还是被拒绝，政策制定者和社会都将从对地球气候系统的进一步了解中受益。这项工作的结果将传播到气候和强风暴社区。这将通过在公共网页上提供结果、在相关专业会议上展示结果以及在评审期刊上发表结果来实现。将有更多的机会在合作机构展示结果，这些机构已经为这项工作提供了模型模拟。

Intellectual merit:At the local scale, it is well known that wind shear influences convection by modulating convective mode and strength. However, how wind shear affects convection at the scales required for climate simulations is unknown. As a result, Global Climate Model (GCM) convective parameterizations do not consider wind shear. This simplification results in errors of unknown size and increased uncertainties for the GCM's estimate of the Earth's hydrologic and radiation budgets, harming future predictions of climate. To help answer this problem, this research will test the following hypothesis: In an equivalent thermodynamic environment, convection will be enhanced in the presence of wind shear at the resolution of a GCM.This hypothesis will be investigated by using a large number of convection resolving model runs. These Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations will be provided by collaborators at three institutions: National Center for Atmospheric Research, National Severe Storms Laboratory, and National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Convective statistics will be derived from these simulations at the resolution of GCMs to understand how convective properties vary with wind shear in similar thermodynamic environments.Broader impacts:This research will help fill the knowledge gaps that exist between the severe convection and climate modeling communities, and will improve the understanding of the Earth climate system and knowledge of current uncertainties within GCMs. The research results will aid future parameterization development for GCMs by determining whether wind shear and its effects on convection need to be included into future convective parameterizations or may be safely neglected. If this work supports the proposed hypothesis, the statistics derived from this study will serve as a starting place for parameterization developers. Regardless of whether the hypothesis is supported or rejected, policymakers and society will benefit from the increased understanding of the Earth's climate system.Results from this work will be disseminated to both the climate and severe storm communities. This will be accomplished by making results available on a public webpage, presenting results at relevant professional conferences, and publishing the results in refereed journals. There will be additional opportunities to present results at the collaborating institutions, which have provided model simulations for this work.