EAGER: The Climate CoLab: A System for Very Large-Scale Model-Based Group Problem-Solving

该项目的目标是开发一个结合人类和计算机能力优势的系统，以帮助解决一个复杂的社会问题：全球气候变化。该项目将建立一个名为“气候合作实验室”的在线社区，世界各地成千上万的人在其中创建、分析并最终选择人类应对气候变化的详细计划。该系统的核心将是基于计算机模拟人类可能采取的行动和这些行动的预测影响的用户创建建议的不断发展的集合。用户还可以讨论不同提案的利弊，并为他们认为最可信和最可取的提案和论点投票。通过以一种新颖的方式集成三种功能（计算机模拟模型、在线辩论和电子投票），该系统允许一大群人定义和评估可选的问题解决方案，而计算机则进行快速计算，以评估每种可选方案的关键后果。通过吸收不同学科的相关专家和有新颖观点的公众人士，社会可以考虑广泛的可行替代方案。通过让政策制定者和大量公民参与进来，最有希望的替代方案最终在政治上得到采纳。智力价值：这项工作的主要智力贡献将是关于如何设计使用计算模型来帮助解决困难的社会和管理问题的大规模在线社区的概括性课程。更广泛的影响：该项目将有助于教育公众有关全球气候变化的问题。此外，通过建设性地让广泛的科学家、政策制定者和关心此事的公民参与进来，这一体系可能有助于制定出实际上比其他任何方式都更好的计划和政策。

The goal of this project is to develop a system that combines the strengths of both human and computer capabilities to help solve a complex societal problem: global climate change. The project will develop an on-line community called the Climate CoLab, in which many thousands of people around the world create, analyze, and ultimately select detailed plans for what humans can do about climate change. At the core of the system will be an evolving collection of user-created proposals based on computer simulations of the actions humans can take and the predicted impacts of those actions. Users will also be able to debate the pros and cons of different proposals and vote for the proposals and arguments they find most credible and desirable. By integrating three capabilities (computer simulation models, on-line debates, and electronic voting) in a novel way, the system lets a very large group of people define and evaluate alternative problem solutions while computers do the rapid calculations needed to assess key consequences of each alternative. By including relevant experts from different disciplines and members of the public who have novel points of view, the community can consider a wide range of plausible alternatives. And by involving policy makers and large numbers of citizens, the eventual political adoption of the most promising alternatives is facilitated. Intellectual merit: The primary intellectual contributions of this work will be generalizable lessons about how to design large-scale, on-line communities that use computational models to help solve difficult societal and managerial problems. Broader impacts: The project will help educate the general public about the issues involved in global climate change. In addition, by constructively engaging a broad range of scientists, policy makers, and concerned citizens, this system may help develop plans and policies that are actually better than any that would have otherwise been developed.