Cartel Birth, Death, and Detection

卡特尔什么时候形成的？什么市场条件有利于卡特尔的形成？卡特尔能维持多久？在哪些市场，我们可以期望卡特尔长期存在？衰退对卡特尔活动的影响是什么？执法方面的努力，比如宽大处理项目，是否减少了贩毒集团的发生频率？哪些新政策可能被证明是有效的？该奖项资助研究这些问题和其他研究方法的组合。PI将使用卡特尔诞生和消亡的随机动态模型来分析卡特尔持续时间和卡特尔在一个经济体中出现频率的可能决定因素。PI将使用这个生灭过程来模拟包含一些内生卡特尔化的行业面板数据集。仿真模型将用于确定通过发现的卡特尔数据估计检测概率的改进方法；对各项竞争政策的执行情况进行事前评估；最后发现潜在卡特尔率的有用代理，以改进卡特尔政策的事后评价。PI还将使用定性研究方法，通过分析美国和欧洲的案例以及对参与卡特尔安排的高管的采访，开发有关卡特尔出生，死亡和检测的新事实。案例分析将更好地确定卡特尔侦查的真正来源。这些采访揭示了企业为何选择组建卡特尔，以及导致其解体的原因。更广泛的影响被完全整合到研究中，因为研究问题在一定程度上是由竞争和反垄断执法机构面临的挑战驱动的。阻止和终结卡特尔对消费者是有利的，但仅从观察到的卡特尔群体来看，很难评估这些政策的全部效益。这里的研究方法的组合将允许PI为美国和全球的竞争当局制定新的建议。

When do cartels form? What market conditions are conducive to cartel formation? How long do cartels last? In what markets can we expect cartels to persist for a long time? What are the implications of recessions for cartel activity? Are enforcement efforts, such as leniency programs, reducing the frequency of cartels? What new policies might prove effective?This award funds research into these and other questions using a combination of research methods. The PI will use a stochastic dynamic model of the birth and death of cartels to analyze the possible determinants of cartel duration and the frequency of cartels in an economy. The PI will use this birth-death process to simulate a panel data set of industries that includes some endogenous cartelization. The simulation model will be used to identify improved methods for estimating the probability of detection through data on discovered cartels; to provide an ex ante evaluation of the performance of various competition policies; and finally to discover useful proxies for the latent cartel rate to improve the ex post evaluation of cartel policies.The PI will also use qualitative research methods to develop new facts about cartel birth, death, and detection through the analysis of US and European cases and interviews with executives who have participated in cartel arrangements. The case analysis will better identify the true source of cartel detection. The interviews shed light on why firms chose to form a cartel and what caused it to break down.Broader impacts are fully integrated into the research, because the research questions are driven in part by the challenges faced by competition and antitrust enforcement agencies. Deterring and ending cartels is good for consumers, but it is difficult to evaluate the full benefit of these policies from observations limited to the population of observed cartels. The combination of research methods here will allow the PI to develop new recommendations for competition authorities in the US and also around the globe.