Fighting Hard Core Cartels

这一研究项目的目的是更全面地了解卡特尔的形成时间、卡特尔如何定价，以及最终如何阻止和检测卡特尔。它的定义观点是考虑到任何非法卡特尔的一个关键目标：提高价格，但不是怀疑：卡特尔希望避免出现卡特尔的形象。PI将开发一种新的动态卡特尔定价模型，该模型包含了避免被发现的战略行为。这为卡特尔定价提供了丰富的描述，既包括过渡阶段--随着企业从竞争转向共谋--也包括静止阶段。关于价格差异、价格与观察到的成本冲击之间的关系--特别是在过渡路径上--以及通过使卡特尔会议内在化、价格变化的频率和周期等衡量标准，制定了串通标记。PI计划利用这一模型开发一个“试验台”，用于评估统计测试，以区分串通定价模式和竞争模式。该项目的第二部分侧重于宽大处理计划。这些规定在美国和欧盟被用来鼓励个别卡特尔成员配合政府对卡特尔行为的调查。PI将开发一个行业群体模型，并使用该模型来描述哪些行业形成了成功的卡特尔。这一模型将成为对美国宽大处理计划进行实证调查的基础。PI还将使用该模型来评估当前美国和欧洲计划可能发生的变化。这项研究将有助于为针对价格操纵卡特尔制定更好的反垄断政策奠定基础。

This research project has as its objective to more fully understand when cartels form, how cartels price, and, ultimately, how to deter and detect cartels. Its defining perspective is to take into account a key goal of any illegal cartel: to raise prices but not suspicions: a cartel wants to avoid the appearance that there is a cartel. The PI will develop a new dynamic model of cartel pricing which encompasses strategic behavior to avoid detection. This produces a rich description of cartel pricing for both the transitional phase -- as firms move from competing to colluding -- and the stationary phase. Collusive markers are developed with respect to such measures as the price variance, the relationship between price and observed cost shocks -- especially along the transition path -- and, by endogenizing cartel meetings, the frequency and periodicity of price changes. The PI plans to use this model to develop a "test bed" for evaluating statistical tests to distinguish collusive pricing patterns from competition.A second part of the project focuses on leniency programs. These are used in the U.S. and the E.U. to encourage individual cartel members to cooperate with government investigations of cartel practices. The PI will develop a model of a population of industries and use that model to describe which industries form successful cartels. This model will be the basis for an empirical investigation of the U.S. leniency program. The PI will also use the model to evaluate possible changes to the current US and European programs.This research will help to build a foundation for better antitrust policy towards price-fixing cartels.