Collaborative Research: Quantum Decision Theory

合作研究:量子决策理论

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    1153726
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 1.01万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2012
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2012-09-01 至 2014-08-31
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

Ever since Tversky and Kahneman's influential research exposing the failures of classical probability theory to describe human reasoning under uncertainty (1974), decision researchers gave up almost all hope to find an axiomatic foundation for understanding human judgments and decisions. Instead, they turned to the idea of using tool boxes of heuristics to explain myriad decision bias and errors. The project will further develop a new theoretical application of quantum probability theory (the mathematical foundation of quantum theory) to human judgment and decision making. Quantum probability theory fundamentally differs from classical probability theory. The critical question is which set of probability rules provides a better description of human judgment and decision. In the Principal Investigators' past several years of research supported by NSF, they have shown that quantum probability theory provides an innovative, coherent, and mathematically principled approach to account for many paradoxical findings in judgment and decision research (i.e., conjunction and disjunction errors, interference effects, question order effects). The current project will further develop and test a consistent quantum probability account of violations of classic probability rules found in question order effects. The investigators will extend the quantum model for order effects to make a priori predictions about the direction of order effects and also to be able to account for measures with multiple ordinal levels. The broad and long term goal of this research program is to break new ground and pioneer a new path by building probabilistic and dynamic systems for social and behavioral sciences from quantum rather than classical probability principles. This project will study whether it matters in what order questions are asked on a survey. The investigators regularly organize workshops on quantum probability models of cognition at annual meetings of Cognitive Science Society and Society for Mathematical Psychology. They have organized two special journal issues on the topic: one appeared in the Journal of Mathematical Psychology (2009) and the other is forthcoming in Topics in Cognitive Science. Their work has been cited across disciplines, ranging from cognitive science, decision science, economics, engineering, to mathematics, physics, and astronomy.
自从Tversky和Kahneman的有影响力的研究揭露了经典概率论在不确定条件下描述人类推理的失败(1974)以来,决策研究者几乎放弃了寻找理解人类判断和决策的公理基础的希望。相反,他们转向了使用启发式工具箱来解释无数决策偏差和错误的想法。该项目将进一步发展量子概率理论(量子理论的数学基础)在人类判断和决策中的新理论应用。量子概率论从根本上不同于经典概率论。关键问题是哪组概率规则能更好地描述人类的判断和决策。在NSF资助的首席调查者过去几年的研究中,他们已经表明,量子概率理论提供了一种创新的、连贯的和数学上原则性的方法来解释判断和决策研究中许多自相矛盾的发现(即合取和析取错误、干扰效应、问题顺序效应)。目前的项目将进一步开发和测试在问题顺序效应中发现的违反经典概率规则的一致量子概率解释。研究人员将扩展秩序效应的量子模型,以对秩序效应的方向做出先验预测,并能够解释具有多个序数水平的测量。这一研究计划的广泛和长期目标是通过从量子而不是经典的概率原理为社会和行为科学建立概率和动态系统,从而开辟新的领域和开辟一条新的道路。这个项目将研究在调查中提问的顺序是否重要。研究人员定期在认知科学学会和数学心理学会的年度会议上组织关于认知的量子概率模型的研讨会。他们组织了两期关于这一主题的特别期刊:一期发表在《数学心理学杂志》(2009)上,另一期即将发表在《认知科学专题》上。他们的工作被跨学科引用,范围从认知科学、决策科学、经济学、工程学到数学、物理和天文学。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(0)
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会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)

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Jerome Busemeyer其他文献

A comparison of models for learning how to dynamically integrate multiple cues in order to forecast continuous criteria
  • DOI:
    10.1016/j.jmp.2008.01.009
  • 发表时间:
    2008-06-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
  • 作者:
    Hugh Kelley;Jerome Busemeyer
  • 通讯作者:
    Jerome Busemeyer

Jerome Busemeyer的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Jerome Busemeyer', 18)}}的其他基金

Collaborate Research: Construct a General Hilbert Space Multi-dimensional Model
合作研究:构建通用希尔伯特空间多维模型
  • 批准号:
    1560554
  • 财政年份:
    2016
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.01万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Integrating dynamic decision making with neurocontrollers by combining system and cognitive sciences
合作研究:通过系统与认知科学的结合,将动态决策与神经控制器相结合
  • 批准号:
    1002188
  • 财政年份:
    2010
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.01万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Quantum Decision Theory
合作研究:量子决策理论
  • 批准号:
    0817965
  • 财政年份:
    2009
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.01万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
Decision Field Theory for Decision Trees
决策树的决策场论
  • 批准号:
    9796197
  • 财政年份:
    1997
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.01万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Decision Field Theory for Decision Trees
决策树的决策场论
  • 批准号:
    9602102
  • 财政年份:
    1996
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.01万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Theory of Adaptive Decision Making
适应性决策理论
  • 批准号:
    8710103
  • 财政年份:
    1987
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.01万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant

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