Doctoral Dissertation Research in DRMS: Qualitative predictions from intertemporal choice models

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In this project the Principal Investigators will exam the qualitative differences between discounting functions in intertemporal choice. Mazur (1987) proposed the hyperbolic discounting function. This type of function implies frequently observed dynamic inconsistency - a preference reversal whereby the agent initially prefers the larger later reward but later changes to prefer the smaller sooner reward . Subsequent researchers have proposed alternative discounting functions to explain this and other empirical regularities. The hyperbolic discounting function is still the most widely accepted model; however, comparisons of different models have not convinced all researchers that it is the best descriptive theory. This may be because previous model comparisons have focused on quantitative differences among models, especially the curve fits between each model and data. Strictly speaking, a curve fit does not provide a decisive conclusion about whether the model is qualitatively correct or not. It only tells which function fits the data better than others. The current research aims to provide more decisive evidence by highlighting qualitative differences between models. To investigate the qualitative predictions of different models of intertemporal choice, the investigators have developed a new modeling framework that can analyze choice patterns across different delays, reward magnitudes, and individual parameters based on the specific mathematical models. In terms of broader impacts, this research will benefit the general public and practitioners who want to promote self-regulation by providing a better understanding of the conflicts between short-term temptations and long-term benefits. It has implications in a variety of arenas, such as retirement planning, addiction treatment, healthy behavior change, and procrastination.