Autonomy and Behavioral Risk Preferences

许多情况需要面对有风险的情况：例如，关于退休的个人选择，对有风险的投资组合的投资，关于销售客户需求不确定的新产品的商业决策，或具有不明确国际后果的外交政策战略。这个项目测试了这样一种观点：当决策者意识到他们可以控制他们所经历的风险水平时，他们更容易接受风险。自主性的作用可以解释为什么决策者选择可能性很小的大结果，而不是很小的确定结果，即使小的确定结果比不确定的数量更能激励他们完成一项努力的任务。研究结果有助于理解决策者何时最愿意承担风险，以及如何最好地激励绩效任务。风险决策在日常生活中无处不在。在一些有风险的情况下，决策者对他们所经历的风险水平有自主权，而在另一些情况下，决策者对环境中存在的指定风险作出反应。这个研究项目测试了一个假设，即自主性增加了风险容忍度，这样，当决策者可以选择一个选项时，他们会表现出更多的风险寻求偏好，而不是当他们对指定的风险做出反应时。一组研究测试了这样一种预测，即自主，甚至仅仅是控制的感知，会增加风险承受力。也就是说，如果决策者认为他们可以控制他们所经历的风险水平，即使在有自主权和没有自主权的决策者之间保持客观风险水平不变的情况下，他们预计会对有风险的选择有更强的偏好。第二组研究将自主性的影响应用于为什么决策者倾向于选择低概率的彩票，而不是匹配的特定结果，而类似的彩票相对于某些激励而言，不能作为努力任务的有效激励。研究人员将选择任务中的风险偏好与有实际激励的努力任务中的风险偏好进行了比较，他们试图分离出导致风险偏好差异的任务特征，并测试感知自主性的差异是否可以解释为什么决策者会选择有风险的选项，而不是为他们工作。十个实验室实验和两个实地研究验证了这些预测。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Many situations require confronting risky situations: for example, personal choices about retirement, investment in risky portfolios, business decisions about selling new products with uncertain customer demand, or foreign policy strategies with unclear international consequences. This project tests the idea that decision makers are more accepting of risk when they perceive that they have control over the level of risk they experience. The role of autonomy may explain why decision makers choose a small likelihood of a large outcome over a small certain alternative even though the small certain outcome is more motivating than the uncertain amount as a reward for performing an effortful task. The research findings have implications for understanding when decision makers are most willing to take on risk and for how best to incentivize performance tasks.Decisions under risk are ubiquitous in everyday life. In some risky situations decision makers have autonomy over the risk level they experience while in others decision makers respond to an assigned risk present in the environment. This research project tests the hypothesis that autonomy increases risk tolerance such that decision makers will exhibit more risk-seeking preferences when they can choose an option than when they respond to an assigned risk. One set of studies tests the prediction that autonomy, or even just the perception of control, increases risk tolerance. That is, decision makers are predicted to have a stronger preference for risky alternatives if they perceive that they have control over the risk level they experience, even when the objective risk level is held constant between decision makers who do and do not have autonomy. A second set of studies applies the effects of autonomy to why decision makers tend to choose low probability lotteries over matched certain outcomes whereas similar lotteries do not serve as effective incentives for effort tasks relative to certain incentives. The researchers compare risk preferences revealed in choice tasks to those revealed in effort tasks with real incentives, they seek to isolate the task features responsible for the difference in risk preference, and they test whether differences in perceived autonomy can explain why decision makers will choose risky options but not work for them. Ten laboratory experiments and two field studies test the predictions.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.