SHINE: Study the Evolution of Coronal Mass Ejections from the Sun to the Earth

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The principal investigator (PI) will study the evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space between the Sun and the Earth, in order to refine predictions of their arrival times at Earth and of their potential geoeffectiveness. To achieve this goal, the PI will use a variety of measurements to fully track and characterize the kinematic and morphological evolution of CMEs, including remote sensing data and 'in situ' solar wind observations from spacecraft. Using a first-principles-based approach, the PI will also create appropriate theoretical flux rope models consistent with observational constraints, in order to fully understand the physical processes that govern a CME's evolution. Finally, the PI will develop an effective CME arrival time prediction model, based on comprehensive observations and improved characterization of a large number of CME events and a robust theoretical model. The PI recognizes that CMEs are a known driver of severe space weather events in the near-Earth space environment. Since CME disturbances in geospace can affect the safety of astronauts, as well as interfere with satellite operations for communication and navigation, this effort will have positive broader impacts for society by improving our predicative capabilities for CME evolution, arrival, and geoeffective impact at Earth. This project will also facilitate the integration of research and education, since most of the requested funding will be used to support a graduate student and a postdoctoral researcher. The PI has already developed two graduate courses in solar and heliospheric physics, and he educates students at George Mason University in the space weather sciences. The research results of this project will be further integrated into the PI's established curriculum, for the continued benefit of his students and for training the next generation of scientists in space weather research.