A Metric for Measuring and Quantifying Wind Power Variability

本研究的目的是开发一个强大的度量标准，用于测量和预测短期内小时内的风力发电的变化，最终目标是将变化管理到所需的水平。 建议的度量使用的统计范围作为衡量分散的变化的风力发电输出。 智力优势：所提出的工作的优点在于一种新的度量来量化和预测小时内风力发电的变化和方法来管理它到所需的水平。 新的度量，适当地称为条件范围度量，提供了最大的风力发电偏移在给定的持续时间，风力发电生产水平，和覆盖率。 分配系统储备和规模和控制的分布式储能系统的新方法将被开发，以证明在传输和分配系统的水平，分别管理变异性的度量的功效。更广泛的影响：拟议的工作的结果预计将提供基本的了解风力发电的变化。 新的条件范围度量使得可能的因素和条件的分析，如时间（季节）的利益，观察的持续时间，风力发电的水平，和影响变化的覆盖率。 新的指标预计将帮助系统规划者和运营商准确量化可变性，从而更好地整合和管理可变风力发电。 拟议的工作还提供了额外的资源，以开发新的本科生和研究生一级的学习材料。 例子包括但不限于本科水平的类项目和动手高级设计水平的项目，在模拟和管理可变性使用电池系统，以及开发一个新的研究生水平的课程，在风力发电集成。

The objective of this research is to develop a robust metric for measuring and forecasting short-term intra-hour variability of wind power with the ultimate goal of managing the variability to the desired level. The proposed metric uses the statistical range as a measure of dispersion for the varying wind power output. Intellectual Merit: The merit of the proposed work lies in a novel metric to quantify and forecast intra-hour wind power variability and methods to manage it to the desired level. The new metric, appropriately termed conditional range metric, provides the largest wind power excursion over given duration, wind power production level, and coverage rate. New methods for allocating system reserve and sizing and control of distributed energy storage systems will be developed to demonstrate the efficacy of the metric in managing variability at the transmission and distribution system levels, respectively.Broader Impact: The outcome of the proposed work is expected to provide fundamental understanding of wind power variability. The novel conditional range metric makes possible the analysis of factors and conditions such as time (season) of interests, duration of observation, level of wind power production, and coverage rates affecting variability. The new metric is expected to aid system planners and operators to quantify variability accurately, and thus allows for better integration and management of variable wind power. The proposed work also provides additional resources to develop new undergraduate- and graduate-level learning materials. Examples include but not limited to undergraduate-level class projects and hands-on senior-design level projects in simulating and managing variability using a battery system, as well as development of a new graduate-level course in wind power integration.