ICES: Small: Collaborative Research: Robust Preference Aggregation

个人的偏好可能很复杂。 该项目调查了人们的偏好是否符合CP网络（条件偏好网络）形式主义，如何根据不同的投票方法组合这些偏好，以及这些方法如何容易受到操纵或“策略性投票”。“最后，Netflix挑战赛中的大量偏好数据被用来建立操纵算法效率的统计模型，并比较不同共识方法的性能。实验室实验将检查人们是否表现出可以用CP网络建模的偏好。该项目将想法从贝叶斯网络（条件概率模型）中的聚合扩展到CP网络（条件偏好模型）中的聚合。该团队研究了来自噪音数据的统计推断如何与战略可操纵性和贿赂相关或相互作用。该项目将行为社会选择和计算社会选择扩展到投票系统，并对其进行操纵，从表示为评级，排名或子集的偏好到表示为CP-nets.The团队调查投票方法的性能和操纵方案对Netflix挑战数据集的真实的偏好数据的效率。 这些数据，即数十万（略有扰动）的个人电影排名，几年前被发布用于数据挖掘目的。 人们可以根据一小部分电影的排名来提取单个“选举”，评估和比较各种聚合方法，并以经验为基础来描述特别容易受到或特别容易受到战略操纵的投票场景。在研究的更广泛影响中，除了跨越几个科学学科的几个不同研究领域的整合和交叉施肥之外，发展更适当的个人和集体决策工具，这将有助于个人，团体，组织和社会改善决策。

An individual's preferences can be complicated. The project investigates whether people's preferences do, in fact, conform to the CP-net (conditional preference network) formalism, how such preferences can be combined according to different voting methods, and how vulnerable those methods are to manipulation or "strategic voting." Finally, the very large corpus of preference data from the Netflix Challenge is used to build statistical models of the efficiency of manipulation algorithms and to compare the performance of different consensus methods.Laboratory experiments will check whether people exhibit preferences that can be modeled by CP-nets. The project extends ideas from aggregation in Bayesian networks (models of conditional probabilities) to aggregation in CP-nets (models of conditional preferences).The team investigates how statistical inference from noisy data relates to or interacts with strategic manipulability and bribery. The project extends behavioral social choice and computational social choice on voting systems, and the manipulation thereof, from preferences expressed as ratings, rankings, or subsets to preferences expressed as CP-nets.The team investigates the performance of voting methods and the efficiency of manipulation schemes on real preference data from the Netflix challenge data set. These data, namely hundreds of thousands of (slightly perturbed) personal rankings of movies, were released several years ago for data-mining purposes. One can extract individual "elections" based on the rankings of a small set of movies, evaluate and compare various aggregation methods and empirically characterize voting scenarios that are especially susceptible or especially resilient to strategic manipulation.Among the broader impacts of the research, beyond the integration and cross-fertilization of several distinct research areas spanning several scientific disciplines, are the development of more adequate individual and collective decision making tools, that will help individuals, groups, organizations, and society to improve decision making.