Toward Predicting the Impact of Ocean Acidification on Net Calcification by a Broad Range of Coral Reef Ecosystems: Identifying Patterns and Underlying Causes

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Intellectual Merit: Much of our understanding of the impact of ocean acidification on coral reef calcification comes from laboratory manipulation experiments in which reef organisms are removed from their natural habitat and reared under conditions of calcium carbonate saturation (Omega) predicted for the tropical oceans at the end of this century. By comparison, there is a paucity of in situ data describing the sensitivity of coral reef ecosystems to changes in calcium carbonate saturation. Yet emerging evidence suggests there may be critical differences between the calcification response of organisms in culture and the net calcification response of a coral reef ecosystem, to the same degree of change in calcium carbonate saturation. In the majority of cases, the sensitivity of net reef calcification to changing calcium carbonate saturation is more severe than laboratory manipulation experiments predict. Clearly, accurate predictions of the response of coral reef ecosystems to 21st century ocean acidification will depend on a robust characterization of ecosystem-scale responses and an understanding of the fundamental processes that shape them. Using existing data, the investigators show that the sensitivity of coral reef ecosystem calcification to Delta calcium carbonate saturation conforms to the empirical rate equation R=k(Aragonite saturation state -1)n, which also describes the relationship between the rate of net abiogenic CaCO3 precipitation (R) and the degree of aragonite supersaturation (Aragonite saturation state-1). By implication, the net ecosystem calcification (NEC) response to ocean acidification is governed by fundamental laws of physical chemistry and is potentially predictable across space and time. When viewed this way, the existing, albeit sparse, dataset of NEC reveals distinct patterns that, if verified, have important implications for how different coral reef ecosystems will respond to 21st century ocean acidification. The investigators have outlined a research program designed to build on this proposition. The project expands the currently sparse dataset of ecosystem-scale observations at four strategically placed reef sites, enabling us to test the following hypotheses: 1. The sensitivity ("n" in the rate equation) of coral reef ecosystem calcification to Delta Aragonite saturation state decreases with decreasing Aragonite saturation state. By implication, the rate at which reef calcification declines will slow as ocean acidification progresses over the course of this century. 2. The energetic status of the calcifying community is a key determinant of absolute rates of net ecosystem calcification ("k" in the rate equation), which, combined with n, defines the Aragonite saturation state value at which NEC approaches zero. By implication, the shift from net calcification to net dissolution will be delayed in healthy, energetically replete coral reef ecosystems and accelerated in perturbed, energetically depleted ecosystems. 3. The calcification response of individual colonies of dominant reef calcifiers (corals and algae) is weaker than the measured ecosystem-scale response to the same change in Aragonite saturation state. By implication, processes not adequately captured in laboratory experiments, such as bioerosion and dissolution, will play an important role in the coral reef response to ocean acidification. Broader Impacts: Ocean acidification threatens the livelihoods of 500 million people worldwide who depend on coral reefs to provide habitable and agricultural land, food, building materials, coastal protection and income from tourism. Yet data emerging from ocean acidification (OA) studies point to critical gaps in our knowledge of reef ecosystem-scale responses to OA that currently limit our ability to predict the timing and severity of its impact on different reefs in different parts of the world. Using existing data generated by the investigators and others, this project will address a series of related hypotheses, which, if verified by the research, will have an immediate, direct impact on predictions of coral reef resilience in a high CO2 world. This project brings together expertise in coral reef biogeochemistry, chemical oceanography and physical oceanography to focus on a problem that has enormous societal, economic and conservation relevance. Support is provided for a young investigator, undergraduate and minority student will participate in research through the WHOI Summer Fellowship Program, the Woods Hole Sea Education Association and PEP programs, and a burgeoning collaboration will be enhanced between the PIs and Pacific Island conservation groups and stakeholders whose goal it is to ensure that conservation decisions are grounded in scientific data. Results of the study will be presented at national and international meetings and workshops and disseminated in a timely manner through peer-reviewed publications. All data produced through this program will be archived in the Biological and Chemical Oceanographic Data Management Office (BCO-DMO) and the Pangaea Open Access library.