Doctoral Dissertation Research: Global Population, Population Science, and Population Politics in the Twentieth Century

博士论文研究：二十世纪全球人口、人口科学与人口政治

• 批准号: 1229051
• 负责人: John Carson
• 金额: $ 1.5万
• 依托单位: Regents of the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-08-01 至 2013-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1229051&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Global; Population

IntroductionThis project documents the intertwined histories of global population, population science, and population politics from 1920 to 2010, focusing on population projections, estimates of future size and structure, to examine the mutual relationships between these three domains. Using archival research and content analysis of key publications, it will ask how population change stimulated the emergence of demography, how demography informed population politics, how population politics directed the development of demography, and how demography, through population policy, influenced population growth. The project treats population projections as boundary objects, a critical interface between population, population science, and population politics that allowed scientists and policy makers to work together without necessarily agreeing on the terms of analysis or goals of intervention, and suggests that population projections have often aimed not just to estimate future population dynamics, but to influence them via the programs they inspire and justify.Intellectual MeritThe proposed research is for the first book-length history of demography in the twentieth-century when the world population increased more rapidly than ever before; during this time, demography became a new science and a means of intervention for governments, intergovernmental agencies, and philanthropic organizations. The book will bridge the divide in the current literature between interwar anxieties about population decline in Europe and postwar anxieties about overpopulation in the rest of the world. Because it will begin before the emergence of the so-called postwar "global population crisis," it will document the scientific and political production of that crisis, rather than treating it as the context in which population science and population politics developed.Potential Broader ImpactsThe broader impacts of this project stem from its goal of analyzing and describing the intellectual conditions under which population estimates and projections are produced. Understanding of and attention to these conditions by the policy makers, scientists, and activists who use demographic data and population projections to produce economic, ecological, and other types of models, and to inform interventions, could help them create more accurate models and effective interventions, both in population studies and in other arenas.

这个项目记录了从1920年到2010年全球人口、人口科学和人口政治的相互交织的历史，重点是人口预测、对未来规模和结构的估计，以检验这三个领域之间的相互关系。它将利用主要出版物的档案研究和内容分析，询问人口变化如何促进人口统计学的出现，人口统计学如何影响人口政治，人口政治如何指导人口统计学的发展，以及人口统计学如何通过人口政策影响人口增长。该项目将人口预测视为边界对象，这是人口、人口科学和人口政治之间的关键接口，允许科学家和政策制定者在不一定就分析条款或干预目标达成一致的情况下进行合作，并表明人口预测的目的往往不仅是估计未来的人口动态，而且通过他们激发和证明的计划来影响它们。拟议的研究是为20世纪世界人口增长比以往任何时候都快的第一本书那么长的人口学历史提出的研究；在此期间，人口学成为一门新的科学，成为政府、政府间机构和慈善组织干预的一种手段。这本书将弥合当前文学中的鸿沟，即两次世界大战之间对欧洲人口减少的焦虑，以及战后对世界其他地区人口过剩的焦虑。因为它将在所谓的战后“全球人口危机”出现之前开始，它将记录这场危机的科学和政治成果，而不是将其视为人口科学和人口政治发展的背景。潜在的更广泛的影响这个项目的更广泛的影响来自于它的目标是分析和描述做出人口估计和预测的智力条件。政策制定者、科学家和活动家了解并关注这些情况，他们使用人口数据和人口预测来产生经济、生态和其他类型的模型，并为干预提供信息，这可以帮助他们在人口研究和其他领域创建更准确的模型和有效的干预措施。