Developing Guidelines to Aid in Communicating Uncertainty

风险管理决策困难的主要原因之一是对拟议行动结果的估计存在不确定性。这种不确定性有多个来源，可以是指预期后果的严重程度，也可以是指评估的可能性。决策者面临的一个关键挑战是，如何在参与风险决策过程的不同参与者-政府机构或学术界的专家、行业工作人员和顾问以及公众-之间就不确定性进行有效沟通。来自这些不同群体的人通常持有不同的价值观，对风险有不同的容忍度，对信息的数字表示有不同的舒适度。虽然众所周知，这些差异可能导致对同一不确定性列报的理解有很大差异，但目前的做法通常反映了对不确定性的列报采取的主要是临时性做法，由每个风险管理人员负责制定列报战略。作为回应，本研究项目有助于制定广泛适用的指导方针，以鼓励理解和尽量减少沟通失败的方式呈现不确定性。拟议的工作结合了实验研究，使用专家和外行作为参与者，与案例研究，将有助于决策者在各种现实世界的设置。 如果参与风险管理决策的利益攸关方能够更充分地理解结果不确定性的影响，并因此选择更符合其自身价值观的选项，那么公民参与重要社会辩论的质量应该得到提高。在一系列案例研究应用中--包括国家安全、环境管理和卫生背景--将促进对可信技术分析作用的信任。这个为期3年的项目的成果将通过演讲、风险管理人员和其他公民的培训、大学课堂教学、媒体提交（例如，报纸社论），并在主要专业期刊上发表文章。

One of the primary reasons risk management decisions are difficult is because of uncertainty in estimates of the outcomes of proposed actions. This uncertainty has multiple sources and can refer to either the expected magnitude of a consequence or to its assessed probability. A key challenge facing decision makers is how to communicate effectively about uncertainty among the different participants involved in the risk decision process -- experts from government agencies or academia, industry staff and consultants, and members of the public. People from these different groups will typically hold different values, have different tolerances for risk, and have different levels of comfort with respect to numeric presentations of information. Although it is widely known that these differences can lead to substantial variations in how the same uncertainty presentation is understood, current practice generally reflects a largely ad hoc approach to the presentation of uncertainty, with each risk manager responsible for developing a presentation strategy. In response, this research project contributes to the development of broadly applicable guidelines for presenting uncertainty in ways that encourage understanding and minimize communication failures. The proposed work combines experimental studies, using both experts and laypersons as participants, with case studies that will assist decision makers in a variety of real-world settings. If stakeholders engaged in risk management decisions are able to more fully understand the implications of outcome uncertainty and, as a result, select options that are more consistent with their own values, then the quality of citizen participation in important social debates should be improved. Across a range of case-study applications -ncluding national security, environmental management, and health contexts- trust in the role of credible technical analyses will be promoted. Results of this 3-year project will be disseminated broadly through presentations, trainings for risk managers and other citizens, teaching in university classes, media submissions (e.g., newspaper editorials), and articles published in leading professional journals.