Improving Deliberative Environmental Management Under Uncertainty

管理行动结果的不确定性一直是环境和资源政策的核心问题。近几十年来，随着广泛的专家和公共利益攸关方开始参与联邦和州资源机构的许多决策，管理人员一直在努力寻找方法，在多方、多问题的环境管理审议的背景下有效地处理不确定性。该项目寻求开发和测试新的方法，以解决在不确定性普遍存在时管理计划的核心问题，如学习、稳健性和灵活性，并找到方法，以对人们有意义的方式呈现与计划结果相关的不确定性信息，并帮助整合他们的认知和情感反应。研究方法包括实验小组、与专业风险经理一起举办的研讨会，以及与不同利益攸关方和环境问题有关的其他有希望的方法。这项研究将促进公众和社区利益攸关方参与环境管理决策。

Uncertainty about the outcomes of management actions always has been a central concern of environmental and resource policies. In recent decades, as a broad base of expert and public stakeholders has come to be involved in many decisions made by federal and state resource agencies, managers have struggled to find ways to address uncertainty effectively in the context of multi-party, multi-issue environmental management deliberations. This project seeks to develop and test new ways to address concerns such as learning and robustness and flexibility that lie at the heart of management plans when uncertainty is pervasive, and to find ways to present information about the uncertainty associated with outcomes of plans in ways that will make sense to people and help to integrate their cognitive and emotional responses. Research methods include experimental groups, workshops with professional risk managers, and other promising approaches with diverse stakeholders and environmental issues. The research will facilitate participation on the part of public and community stakeholders in environmental management decisions.