LTER: Drivers, dynamics and consequences of non-linear change in coastal barrier systems

弗吉尼亚海岸保护区(VCR)长期生态研究(LTER)计划研究海岸屏障生态系统对气候变化、海平面上升和人类使用强度的反应。对流域、沼泽、滩涂、海湾和堰塞岛的研究表明，生态动态发生了令人惊讶和戏剧性的变化，即所谓的“临界点”或阈值，即一个生态系统迅速转移到另一个生态系统。当这些变化发生时，许多关键的生态系统服务--风暴缓冲、商业渔业支持、碳封存和野生动物栖息地--就会丧失，可能很难恢复。VCR LTER使用长期观察、实验和建模来表征这些临界点如何、在哪里和何时发生、将生态系统推向或远离临界阈值的环境驱动因素和生物反馈，以及生态系统抵御变化的弹性。了解对全球变化的非线性反应对于管理沿海生态系统至关重要，沿海生态系统居住着全球一半以上的人口，人类正在以前所未有的速度改变系统。VCR研究成果将通过该计划的网站、出版物和演示文稿以及与区域利益攸关方的伙伴关系广泛传播，为政策决策提供信息。该网站的校园计划将为当地县的中小学提供重要的培训和基础设施，这些县是弗吉尼亚州最贫穷的县之一，那里一半以上的学生是女性和少数民族。通过弗吉尼亚海岸保护区的研究生项目培训未来的环境科学家是拟议研究的优先事项之一。

The Virginia Coast Reserve (VCR) Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Program examines the response of coastal barrier ecosystems to climate change, sea-level rise and intensified human use. Studies of watersheds, marshes, tidal flats, bays, and barrier islands show that there are surprising and dramatic changes in ecological dynamics, so-called 'tipping points' or thresholds, where one ecosystem rapidly shifts to another. When these changes occur, many key ecosystem services - storm buffering, commercial fisheries support, carbon sequestration and wildlife habitat - are lost and may be difficult to restore. The VCR LTER uses long-term observations, experiments, and modeling to characterize how, where, and when these tipping points occur, the environmental drivers and biological feed-backs that move ecosystems toward or away from critical thresholds, and the resilience of ecosystems to resist change. Understanding non-linear responses to global change is critical to managing coastal ecosystems where over half the global population lives, and where humans are altering systems at unprecedented rates. VCR research findings will be broadly disseminated through the program's website, publications and presentations, and partnerships with regional stakeholders to inform policy decisions. The site's Schoolyard Program will provide important training and infrastructure to primary and secondary schools in the local counties, which are some of the poorest in Virginia, and where over half the students are women and minorities. Training of future environmental scientists through the graduate programs at the Virginia Coastal Reserve is one of the priorities of the proposed research.