The Influence of Temporal and Spatial Scales on Drivers of Host-Parasite Interactions

几乎所有生物的分布都是由非生物和生物因素以及扩散或繁殖压力(在非本土地区定居的个体数量)决定的。然而，很少有理论和实证研究同时考虑这三个过程对物种相互作用和分布的影响，或者b)研究这些因素的相对影响如何在空间和时间尺度上变化。宿主-寄生虫的相互作用是特别令人关注的物种相互作用，因为人类和野生动物疾病正在以前所未有的速度出现。正在提供资金，以利用一个理论框架来解决这一知识差距，以测试空间和时间尺度如何影响宿主-寄生虫的相互作用。在空间上，气候等非生物因素在大空间尺度上可能是最重要的，但在气候通常更均匀的小尺度上，生物和繁殖压力因素可能更重要。在时间上，不可预测的气候变化随着全球气候变化而增加，可能会增加感染，因为寄生虫应该比宿主更快地适应温度变化，因为它们的体型较小，新陈代谢更快。这笔赠款的总体目标是使用实验、建模和局部到全球分析的组合来测试这些假设和其他关于时空尺度如何影响宿主-寄生虫相互作用和疾病出现的假设。两栖动物-寄生虫的相互作用将成为模式研究系统，因为有几个时空上明确的数据集，关于两栖动物的分布、两栖动物病原体的流行以及病原体驱动的两栖动物的衰落和灭绝。具体目标是：A.确定气候变化的时间尺度如何影响宿主-寄生虫的相互作用。B.评估空间尺度如何影响非生物、生物和繁殖压力因素对宿主-寄生虫相互作用的相对重要性。C.为气候变化和疾病驱动的灭绝风险开发经过验证的预测模型。该奖项将吸引在科学中代表性不足的种族或能力的个人参与，并将广泛教育公众关于环境变化生物学的知识，提供将在其资金之外持续存在的积极遗产。拟议的研究将与一门关于时空尺度在生态学中的重要性的新研究生课程彻底结合起来，并将为女性本科生和在科学中代表性不足的种族或能力提供研究机会。此外，研究小组将与希尔斯伯勒县学区和南佛罗里达大学继续教育学院合作，为高中生物教师提供关于环境变化生物学的暑期讲习班(作为继续教育学分)。至少一半的教师将从主要是少数族裔入学的学校中挑选出来。最后，科学研究本身将具有广泛的公共利益，因为它将增强对自然和人为环境变化在时空尺度上对疾病风险的影响的预测。

The distributions of virtually all organisms are dictated by abiotic and biotic factors and dispersal or propagule pressure (number of individuals colonizing a non-native region). Nevertheless, there are few theoretical and empirical studies that a) simultaneously consider the impacts of these three processes on species interactions and distributions or b) investigate how the relative influence of these factors change across spatial and temporal scales. Host-parasite interactions are species interactions of particular concern because human and wildlife diseases are emerging at an unprecedented rate. Funds are being provided to address this knowledge gap using a theoretical framework to test how spatial and temporal scales affect host-parasite interactions. Spatially, abiotic factors, such as climate, might be most important at large spatial scales, but biotic and propagule pressure factors might be more important at small scales where climate is generally more homogeneous. Temporally, unpredictable climatic shifts, which are increasing with global climate change, might increase infections because parasites should acclimate to temperature shifts more quickly than their hosts due to their smaller sizes and faster metabolisms. The overall goal of this grant is to use a combination of experiments, modeling, and local-to-global analyses to test these and other hypotheses for how spatiotemporal scales affect host-parasite interactions and disease emergence. Amphibian-parasite interactions will be the model study system because there are several spatiotemporally-explicit datasets on amphibian distributions, amphibian pathogen prevalence, and pathogen-driven amphibian declines and extinctions. The specific objectives are to:A. Determine how the temporal scale of climatic shifts affects host-parasite interactions.B. Evaluate how spatial scale affects the relative importance of abiotic, biotic, and propagule pressure factors to host-parasite interactions.C. Develop validated predictive models for extinction risk driven by climate change and disease.This award will engage individuals of ethnicities or abilities that are under-represented in science and will broadly educate the public on the biology of environmental change, providing a positive legacy that will persist beyond its funding. The proposed research will be thoroughly integrated with a new graduate course on the importance of spatiotemporal scales in ecology and will provide research opportunities for undergraduates that are female and of ethnicities or abilities that are under-represented in science. Additionally, in coordination with the Hillsborough County School District and the University of South Florida's College of Continuing Education, the research team will offer summer workshops (as continuing education credits) on the biology of environmental change for high school biology teachers. At least one-half of the teachers will be chosen from schools with a primarily minority enrollment. Finally, the scientific research itself will have widespread public benefits because it will enhance forecasts of the effects of natural and anthropogenic environmental change on disease risk across spatiotemporal scales.